Great topic Liberty! Idk if it will make as much as LWW. I mean with LWW no one knew what to expect. But now with 2 previous movies having been made, the franchise has had some time to bring in some new fans and make some enemies. I don't know if that will help or hurt VDT in the box office.

I think it helps that it's a fantasy movie that comes out around Christmas. It will definitely make more than Prince Caspian because of that. At the same time though, I think LWW was better for the Christmas feel than VDT because it has all the snow and Father Christmas comes and such. VDT doesn't really have anything to do with Christmas, but it does have magic which everyone loves around the holidays.

It has its opening weekend all to itself. I wasn't around for LWW's opening weekend so I'm not sure if it had that advantage. That will be a big help to sales.

Most of all, I think the biggest advantage it has over LWW is that it's in 3D. I think that will be a big help.

I also think it helps that the actors have had more time to develope their careers and gain a fanbase outside of Narnia and some will go see the movie just because Ben and Skandar are in it most likely.

All things considered VDT has enough pros and cons that it could go either way and we'll just have to wait and see.

So is the question whether it will make more than LWW on opening weekend, or if it will make more than LWW total?

If we're talking about opening weekend, I think it is possible. I think LWW made around 65 million the first weekend. I can see VDT making that and maybe even as much as 70 million.

Do I think it will make as much as LWW overall? No. And I'm 95% sure of it. The only film I can think of that had the second film in a series make much less than the original, yet the third film make more than the original would be Fast and Furious series.

Well... when I glanced at the topic, the first thing that came to mind was 'absolutely no way.' But then, as I turned it over in my mind, I started wondering.

I'm not sure how 3D will affect VDT's box office. It seems like for every person who thinks 3D is the best thing since sliced bread, there's two other people who just find it annoying. The ratings from Avatar seem to indicate a rise in interest, so it could go either way.

I think a summer release would've helped VDT a lot. Unlike LWW, VDT is set in the summer, and it just fits. So I'm not sure how that'll play. However, the semi-depression going on in the US, I think, is going to give VDT's box office a boost. During The Great Depression, the movie industry boomed, and the general feel for movies was lighter, happier. From the poster we've seen, the PR department appears to be trying to tap into this: "Return to Hope, Return to Magic, Return to Narnia". So this is probably the best time they could get for this particular movie.

I think the main obstacle VDT has to get over (compared to LWW) is that it's not as well known as the other two. When Narnia is mentioned, the first thing that pops into most people's minds is The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. VDT is to LWW as a spin-off is to the original TV show--it still has the support and background from the original work, yet it stands apart.

So. Will VDT surpass LWW's opening weekend? Probably not. But is it possible...? Could be.

I voted I don't know. This is a cool topic too LH.

This has been on my mind a lot recently. I'm hoping VDT will make the same gross number as LWW or a little higher. IDK the real reason as to why PC didn't make much like LWW did. Was it because of competition with other movies? Was it because some of LWW's audience didn't like the movie? or was it because people avoided seeing PC in the theaters because they all knew about the changes?

It can go either way but the good thing about VDT being released in December is that it's a family movie and a lot of family members will be seeing it during the holidays

I have my high positive hopes up

No, I do not believe it will. LWW had some great marketing and it was astounding that it made as much money as it did. After PC's poor performance, I feel like people (other than narnia fans) will expect it to be just another fantasy movie and will have no strong desire to see it. However, I really hope that I'm wrong. We haven't seen a trailer yet so I don't know what to expect yet.

No. I don't think it will either. It is a sequel and the story isn't nearly as good.

I would not be surprised if VDT equaled LWW's total, or came pretty close... But I'm not sure it will beat it. 'Course, I'd love to be wrong about that.

That would be amazing if it did better than LWW! I'll be very surprised if it made more money...

I think it will. It is very awaited. It is the best regarded Narnia installment. It will have a better release date with less competition.

You know, really, I think that it may indeed make more than LWW. Even though I voted the last choice. Thinking it over, I realized that VDT might attract non-narnia fans if it's as good as it looks like it might be turning out to be. LWW pretty much was a kid movie... that's it. But if VDT is deep enough to be both a kid's movie and an adult's movie then VDT has a good chance of making some good money.
I also very much approve of their marketing thus far (even with the Avatar, excuse me, Aslan poster).

Most of all, I think the biggest advantage it has over LWW is that it's in 3D. I think that will be a big help.

as much as I hate to say it (because I'm not a big fan of it being in 3D) it will be a big help because of the popularity of movies in 3D.....

I voted yes even though the odds are against VDT accomplishing this. There is reason to be optimistic because VDT does have the potential to exceed LWW at the box office.

Because the story does have wide appeal and is considered one of the favorites amongst Narnia fans, that should help it over PC's performance. If the movie is as good as the book or better, there is a chance; because it is being released during a holiday period, that helps big time if a movie has good word-of-mouth and is family oriented.

But PC will be a negative influence because people will either say "I didn't like the last Narnia movie" or " "I heard it wasn't as good as LWW, a friend said they didn't like PC." I've seen that happen in the past where one film in a series drags down the next one's popularity although the next one was a better movie.

So if VDT is a great movie and has good word-of-mouth, I think there is a possibility. But I think the more realistic one is that it will do better than PC and that would be good enough to get The Silver Chair going.

I voted "No", but I'm closer to a "Maybe (but probably not)".

I voted I don't know, mostly because there are so many factors that go into the box office. Movie quality+Economy+Advertisements+Peoples feelings+Enemy Movies=General Box Office Gross, And all that = 95 percent unpredictability. Therefore I will not predict anything but I am 51 % hopeful.