Megamind took in $16 it's opening weekend and Tangled $48, but that was over Thanksgiving weekend. So I'd venture a guess to say $20 with the buzz isn't a bad thing to hope for. I'm hoping it'll pull a lot closer to $40 though.

It better make more than 20 million opening weekend! Otherwise there will be no Silver Chair. I think for VDT to outgross PC it would need to open to at least 35 million. I'm expecting somewhere between 45 and 50 million with an ending gross of somewhere around 200 million domestically.

I'm counting on 40-50 million dollars due to the large fanbase and 3D showing. Sadly, anything lower would probably either end or cripple the franchise. However, I would like to point out that Titanic had a small opening weekend of $28,638,131 before starting to grow rapidly to over a $1bil. Of course, Narnia probably won't end up like that but a fan can dream.

Titanic was in a completely different box office era when movies were in the theater for 6-9 months. Now days movies are only in the theater for a month to two months. There just isn't enough time for it to accumulate that kind of gross, especially if the movie is a sequel.

A more recent example of a movie opening unspectacularly but doing well in the end was Night at the Museum in December of 2006.

Opening weekend USA: $30,433,781
Domestic Total: $250,863,268
Source: http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=nightatthemuseum.htm

As for sequels and staying power, Toy Story 3 ist still making the charts after 24 weeks, almost 6 months. Source: http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=toystory3.htm

So there are exceptions even nowadays. It isn't like the old days to be sure but a movie can stay in theaters longer than usual if enough people keep going to see it each week.

We'll find out about VDT's box office "legs" during and just after the holidays. Should have a good idead after about 5-6 weeks.

LWW took in $65mil opening weekend.
PC took in $55mil opening weekend.
If VDT doesn't bring in at least as much as PC, we're in big trouble. I voted the $50mil to $60mil range.

Fantasia_Kitty, the thing is VDT can afford to have a much lower opening than Prince Caspian and still make more than that movie because of Christmas break. (A time of year where lots of families take the time to watch a movie at the theaters). Movies nearly always open higher in the summer, but tend to drop much faster at the box office.

For example, the record for the highest opening in December is 77 million while the biggest opening in May is Spider Man at 151 million.

What was bad for Prince Caspian was that it opened fairly low despite being released in May. If it made that 55 million opening weekend in December it probably would have made around 200 million domestically.

Titanic was in a completely different box office era when movies were in the theater for 6-9 months. Now days movies are only in the theater for a month to two months. There just isn't enough time for it to accumulate that kind of gross, especially if the movie is a sequel.

An average (good) movie's life span is more than 1-2 month as indicated in boxofficemojo.com and time doesn't matter as much since most films are able to gain in 3 month where past films could only gain in 9 month due to 3D viewings, larger theater count, and higher ticket prices. Sure, the competition is tougher than previous years but box-office success depends on the movie's popularity with movie-goers and good word-of-mouth. As for sequels, The Dark Knight, Toy Story 3, Harry Potter 7, Spider-man 3 are good examples of sequels out-grossing the original.

Also, to clarify, I didn't say Narnia would follow the path of Titanic, only that I wished it so and to give an example that opening weekends is not always the deciding factor of success.

One thing Titanic had going for it was word of mouth. Lot's of people kept spreading good buzz about it to the point where everyone felt like they HAD to see it. I think we should do the same for Narnia. Of course this film will not have a Avatar/Titanic/Return of the King boxoffice gross, but it could get high.

Anyway I expect around 50 million. But I could easily see this film grossing much less or much more

Right, now days a movie can gross in 3 months what used to take 9 months, but you have to start with more than 30 million opening weekend if you want to make 600 million. Like GlimGlum said, Night at the Museum is probably the best modern example of starting out small, and growing from there. The only difference is that Dawn Treader is a sequel, which means that it is more likely to have a bigger opening weekend, and less amount of time spend in theaters.

The problem is that there are just so many films being made now days, that it's not long before movies start getting pushed out to make room for new ones. Plus, people are getting more lavish entertainment centers in their homes, and movies are coming to DVD more quickly than they used too, which lessens the appeal of going to a theater.

But, the one thing about the box office is that it is quite unpredictable. It could really do just about anything. So we can always hope.

Megamind took in $16 it's opening weekend and Tangled $48, but that was over Thanksgiving weekend. So I'd venture a guess to say $20 with the buzz isn't a bad thing to hope for. I'm hoping it'll pull a lot closer to $40 though.

Uh... Megamind pulled in about $45 M in it's opening weekend, I don't know where you're getting your info from.

The expectations here are way low. Guys, even if VDT fell from Prince Caspian by $10 M, it would still have about as big of a weekend because of 3D. So, I see VDT doing about $60-$65 M in its opening weekend, and about $200 M in total. That would be good enough for SC to get green-lit.

The tracking says mid-40's already. That means what it would probably open to now. Unless Fox is completely inept, then they will hype the film incredibly in it's last week, and hopefully reviews will be good enough to do the same. So, I would say $50 M is about definite, $60 M is possible, and $65 M, about LWW numbers, is not out of the question.

I think VDT's success should be comparable to LWW. 3D will definitely drive up the totals a bit, especially since HP7 is not in 3D. Unfortunately I do not think that VDT will reach Alice in Wonderland's success level because Alice had no competition in the 3D market. Soon Dawn Treader will be fighting against Tron: Legacy and Yogi Bear in 3D, not to mention Gulliver's Travels later this month. (Why Fox decided to open two fantasy stories in 3D this December is beyond me.)

However, I do not think that the outlook for Dawn Treader is as bad as Box Office Mojo is making it out to be. LWW was marketed to the Christian audience, and that is a group of movie-goers that Hollywood is not good at predicting. Churches showed up for LWW, and that helped to drive that movie's success. Disney did not do a good job marketing PC to the Christian audience, -and Churches as a whole did not show up. Some church leaders, it seems, were even oblivious to the fact that another Narnia movie had been released. Not so with VDT. Fox has really unleashed Grace Hill to market to the Church, in a way that is even bigger than with LWW. Christians are really excited about VDT, and I predict that the church will show up and surprise the trackers.

Finally voted in my own poll. I decided to be cautiously optimistic and voted for $50-$60 million for the opening weekend her in the United States.

I think the good box office tracking so far and mostly positive responses from the preview screenings have been encouraging for VDT's potential. Even if it doesn't have a really big first weekend, if the word of mouth is strong, the holiday period will give it a nice boost.

I voted for $40-$50 million. Even if the film stumbles and performs significantly lower than PC, it should still be able to easily get a $40 million opening weekend due to 3D. (Early reviews have said the 3D is not very good, however. That could hurt word of mouth down the road. )

And if the film does great and gets around $55-$65 million, well, I'll be happy I was wrong.