I'm not too worried about Tron 2. At the moment i'm not entirely sure it will have enough boxoffice reach outside the hardcore nerd crowd. Even with the added nostalgia that has built up around the original film in the last 20 odd years, i'm still not convinced that is going to translate into a massive box-office with mainstream audiences. Very early days though.

Green Lantern i perhaps would of been more worried about, so i'm actually somewhat pleased that Tron is trying to muscle it out of that spot.

P.S. Does anyone else have to think really hard every time they see a news story about the upcoming Green Lantern and Green Hornet films to remember which one is which?

I'm not too worried either. I think getting over the hump that was Prince Caspian is really good. Voyage is far more popular than Prince Caspian. Add that to the December release date, and I think Voyage is going to do fine, well enough to get the ball rolling on Silver Chair. And besides, with the lower budget (do we know what it is exactly?) Voyage won't need to make a much to be considered successful, right?

I guess we'll have to wait and see. It's too early to tell. Not much word of mouth about most of those yet - except for maybe Tron - and everything could change very quickly.

Believe it or not, I do know some people (mostly older people who were teens when they watched the first Tron) who are looking forward to the sequel to that film, but it's hard to tell how much of the hype is going to last until then and if it's going to be as good as the first. As for Green Hornet, I'd rather see a trailer before I make any assumptions.

Hey, if it can compete with Harry Potter being released not too long before it, it can compete with anything right now. lol
Green Lantern would have been a HUGE threat, but I don't think anything else should be as threatening.
Let's just hope word of mouth doesn't ruin it's chances at the box office.
That has killed some BIG movies this year, like X-men Origins: Wolverine, though rightly so, seeing that I heard how bad it was.
A lot can affect it, it depends I guess on how much they want to advertise this. Are they going to make toys? Show pictures of the characters on pop cans or anything? Can they get the word out well enough that people who never read the books will go see this? Are people tired of fantasy movies, when they can't tell anymore if it's a rip off of something else or a real adaption of a popular book?
Hope I'm not adding to your worries gymfan. lol
I'm not going to worry about box office, I'll worry about how I'm going to enjoy the release!
And hope they decide to continue with the series.

- Twinimage

I'm starting to worry about Tron 2. In fact, I'm starting to worry about all the competition. I just really feel like we are cutting it close again with VDT, with other movies coming out so close to us. but Twinimage gave me something to think about by that last little bit:

I'm not going to worry about box office, I'll worry about how I'm going to enjoy the release!

I guess the more important thing is to worry about how the movie turns out! Nothing should really matter as long as the movie is a great adaption (and enough is made to make SC)!

I am not the normal movie-goer. There is a fair chance I wont even go to a theater before VDT hits the big screen. I certainly wont bother with seeing the Tron remake and/or Green Lantern. Was not even remotely impressed with Iron Man; saw it on DVD. Have not seen Indiana Jones and Kingdom of the Nursing Home Skull. I did then and still do like PC.

Anyhoo ... Predicting the market is so difficult. I don't fret about it. So many folks thought King Kong was going to marginalize the box office totals for LWW, and that did not happen. KK fizzled rather badly, actually. Fickle market.

If VDT marketing and promotion is done right and the film is done right, it'll do good no matter what the competition is because the film will promote itself once it hits theaters. LWW did a lot of that. I saw families and full-ish theaters every time I went. I also talked to several people who said something like "Oh my friend saw that and said it was great. We're going next weekend to see it." Word of mouth advertising was the best friend, imo, LWW had.

PC on the other hand, the adaptation wasn't the best so Narnia fans didn't do the word of mouth thing as strongly. It was so much darker than LWW so families with younger kids didn't go. And the promotion wasn't the greatest. So despite PC being a good movie, it didn't do as well as it could have despite whatever movie the competition could be.

wouldn't have a clue what Tron Legacy and i wouldn't go see the other although a lot of other people would. Also doesn't the next harry potter movie get released a week before VDT?

no It's releasing Nov 19th it will be in it's forth weekend by the time DT sails, Not too much to worry about there, and it's the Holiday season there is ALWAYS Competition and it does (so far have the dec 10th weekend all to itself, not that it doesn't worry me some that they're FOUR films scheduled to hit theaters the weekend after, but I'm not even sure if Yogy Bear will be released. or if it will even be very big at all, and the Smurfs looks really bad from what I've seen so far Green Hornet hasn't had anything to much to excite me either. Tron 2, does look kind of cool though. and I never saw the first and might actually end up seeing it in theaters. but these release dates could always change. I'm not sure all the other company's like the Idea of four Major films releasing on the same day either. and if DT is adapted right then, I wouldn't worry about it too much it's a really good story and people will like it. but advertising can play a big role to a films success. and hype there needs to be hype, and the fact that they almost didn't make DT adds some hype in it's self a new distributor could add some, they're are already people talking about it and adding it to the top 20 list of films in 2010 (I'll be happy when I see it in some top ten lists) and sure as heck am going to see it!

I thought the original Tron was kind of lame, so I can't really see Tron 2 being some major hit that just rakes in massive amounts of money. I'm not worried about it. Green Hornet might be a bit of a threat, but he's not one of the more recognizable superheroes. Now if it were Green Lantern, I'd be really worried, since probably every comic book geek on the planet has been eagerly anticipating that movie.

erm... comic book geek on deck aye!
it is true that VDT will have a lot to worry about if GL (Green Lantern) didnt get moved out of the Christmas season. because production progress is moving slightly slower than expected (mostly due to scripting issues) it will never make the December 2010 date no matter what they do to rush it (if they wanted to) so we can all breathe a little easy on that.

Tron Legacy aka Tron2 will capitalize on the nostalgia-- much like what LWW did, and if its VFX are as cutting edge as its trying to aim for, it has the potential to be a box office juggernaut.

but there is something important you must all remember, Tron is a sci-fi extravaganza, VDT is a magical fantasy tale. technically they dont really compete since they offer different flavors of storytelling. the trick is to make sure that VDT does not forget to play to its strengths-- magic, fantasy, swashbuckling if not epic adventure. that was one of PC's flaws-- it forgot the magic and got lost in the politics. so long as VDT doesnt forget that Narnia is as much about wonderment as it is about moralism then it shouldnt have too much to worry about.

oh, one more thing, Tron Legacy is being made in 3D, if it gets too enamored on the 3D aspect and forgets to remember that it should also be visually captivating as a 2D tale, then VDT could use that to its advantage.

edit: oh and dont worry about Green Hornet, goodness knows i want to kill that thing to keep them from mocking the memory of Bruce Lee's Kato.

Just a few things:

The article gymfan quoted never speaks of The Green Lantern releasing in Dec, 2010, that will be released in 2011 according to Boxofficemojo. The movie that the article speaks of is The Green Hornet, which is another movie entirely, a superhero movie but still different. It might not be much of a threat even with Seth Rogen on board it.

Harry Potter releases, as was said, four weeks prior so that isn't much of a problem. Tron Legacy I am not to familiar with, but being Disney I do suspect we need to watch out for this one. That releases in VDT's second weekend, thankfully even if it gets hurt, the next two weekends are holidays, christmas and new year, so those should boost the weekends a bit.

The holiday season is competitive but because of the extended weekends, most movies do better in this time slot, unlike the summer crowd which doesn't have the holiday to work with (except memorial day and July 4).

the article doesnt mention Green Lantern, but Gymfan is correct that Green Lantern originally was set for the Christmas season, hence the buzz that Warner Bros is trying to recapitalize on the Dark Knight Oscar potential by pushing GL during the Oscar sweeps. but it wont make it now. the Green Hornet development is pretty recent, but most agree that it isnt really a threat. unless Seth Rogen and company pulls something special out of their behind and makes GH a must watch superhero movie of the holidays.

Anyone think I'm overreacting?

Sort of. A tiny bit. I mean, I think this community, as a whole, worries itself to death about "threats". Competition is a natural part of life. It's a good thing, if you meet it head on and prepare for it. It's also unavoidable. You can pick pretty much any time of the year and find another potential "threat" to fuss about. I understand your concern, but, the film, ultimately, has to sink or swim on its own merit and its own appeal. If people want to see it, Tron, or anything else, won't get in their way. If it's good, they'll want to see it again and again. Remember, Caspian grossed $420 million. Despite all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth about how "disappointing" that was, it's a tremendous take for what is certainly the least cinematically adaptable of the books. Dawn Treader is a far more appealing property, both from a story perspective, and from an adaptability perspective. More importantly, it's going to cost less money to make. Right away, those are two huge improvements, and almost certainly guarantees a better gross (and profitability) than the previous film, assuming a similar (at least) level of quality. It's not going to gross three-quarters of a billion dollars, but it doesn't have to. Don't worry. Be happy.

Word of mouth advertising was the best friend, imo, LWW had.

That helped it, undeniably. However, I'd say the name recognition factor it had going for it (which none of the other books possess) was more important, ultimately. 'Wardrobe' was the only true "event" film of this series. You won't see the same level of anticipation or curiosity amongst the general public for any of the other films in the series. There will be varying levels of interest (and success), but nothing like 'Wardrobe' again. The best word of mouth won't compensate for the relative obscurity of the other books, in my opinion. Still, I'm confident that they can all be successes, so long as they are managed properly, based on their relative level of appeal as separate properties.