Well, take under account the fact that green-lighting takes time... we've waited over half a year for VoDT to be green-lit, remember? It was largely because of Disney performing an intricate dance of evasion before very thoughtfully dropping out on December 24th, but before that happened - it was 6 months without any news! A casting was opened, yes, but the firm, real green-lighting (if my memory serves me well) was much later, once Fox joined in. I think we're being a bit too demanding, sure we want SC, but those things take time, unfortunately... I hope we get the positive news soon, in due time, but soon

Assuming it actually does get greenlit, this is when I think it will happen.

TSC gets greenlit - June 2011
In theaters - November/December 2013

FriendofNarnia2- I think/hope you are right but the green lighting my take longer than that. We are going to hope for the best.

I'm hoping they greenlight SC May 2011 based on the additional profit from VDT DVD sales and TV broadcast rights (earlier would be nice but wishful thinking) and it comes out December 2012 or December 2013. Though the powers that be have been terribly slow due to all sorts of reasons, mainly the Disney drop-out , I keep wondering what might have been if they had had faith in the remaining films...and there was no fallout, the franchise might be in better health.

If TSC gets greenlit, which i think it will, i don't think it'll be out any later than December 2012. I expect an announcement about hiring writers for TSC within a couple months. If i'm correct, doesn't a script have to be turned in to the company before the movie can be greenlit? So we'll have quite some time between a scripting announcement and a greenlight, i think.

It's a complicated question because this process involves 2 companies, Fox and Walden. So here's my choose-your-own-adventure prediction.

I think Fox will decide yay or nay in May, after an analysis of early DVD and blu-ray sales.

If Fox green lights: given that VDT is dramatically more profitable than PC, I'm pretty confident that Walden will be on board with it too . I suspect they'll want to jump right in to the pre-production process in preparation for filming in the winter of 2011-12 (Hopefully in Scotland ). Post-production can take a really long time, but it's within the realm of possibility that they could release it for Christmas 2012.

If Fox, backs out: It's not necessarily a definite red light. Walden controls the rights, so it's up to them. But, they would have to start from square one finding a distributor, which means it'll be another long wait before we get Silver Chair.

I think the soonest it might be greenlit is March, when Fox/Walden see how VDT performs in the last two remaining international markets (Venezuela & Japan). If it crashes and burns in Japan, then we can forget about it. But somehow I dont think it will, given its performance in nearby China. The latest I expect is by the end of May, when it will become pretty clear how DVD/Blu-ray sales ended up. I will go into a depression if SC isnt greenlit by the beginning of summer.

I think even more important than VDT making a profit, will be how SC might hold up against future competition. Given its downward spiral, can it hold its own in Winter 2012, Spring 2013, or Winter 2013? If Fox feels it can't hold up, then they will cut off Narnia after it at least made a profit on "Narnia 3".

Personally, I think that Narnia's franchise audience has stabilized. I dont see it dropping anymore. However, lets be prepared for another budget cut. Maybe $100 million...which is still a decent budget. I recently saw fantasy movie "Season of the Witch" and it was made on a $40 million budget and it looked pretty fantastical.

Greenlight SC: I hope early february, but probably a week or 2 after Japan's openingweekend, so early march.
Releasedate: If they can start filming in autumn this year, a november/december 2012 releasedate is no problem.

Personally, I think that Narnia's franchise audience has stabilized. I dont see it dropping anymore. However, lets be prepared for another budget cut. Maybe $100 million...which is still a decent budget. I recently saw fantasy movie "Season of the Witch" and it was made on a $40 million budget and it looked pretty fantastical.

I also think the franchise grosses are stabilized, at least worldwide. I don't think any Narnia could gross less than 325-350 million.
But the domestic market, that's the most concerning part, it keeps dropping. It's almost a third of LWW's gross. Even dropped a couple ten millions from PC's gross, and that with help a winter release and 3D boost.
I think a budget of 130-140 million $ is desirable for each movie. It makes for a nice profit, not as huge as LWW's but sufficient to keep going. I prefer the same budget and small profit. Than lower budget, crap production values and higher profits.

A small ray of hope is that by the time SC is released in theatres, Harry Potter will be over. So that is one big less competition to deal with. I know HP 7 part 1 was released at least 3 weeks before VDT, but it was still a humongous rival.

Without HP as competition, SC may be the only major fantasy movie on screen at the time. So that gives us some hope for a greenlighting.

Without HP as competition, SC may be the only major fantasy movie on screen at the time.

*cough* The Hobbit *cough*

A small ray of hope is that by the time SC is released in theatres, Harry Potter will be over. So that is one big less competition to deal with. I know HP 7 part 1 was released at least 3 weeks before VDT, but it was still a humongous rival.

Without HP as competition, SC may be the only major fantasy movie on screen at the time. So that gives us some hope for a greenlighting.

Not only that, apart from rivalry, the fantasy genre menu in theatres seems to be rather narrow for the 2012/2013 crossing, so SC would be bound to attract more audience as a major fantasy film, like you said. I hope the studios will take that under account, as a dashing but deep fantasy movie SC has huge chances of attracting audience on fantasy genre withdrawal!

The Hobbit will be a competition, but one that SC can calmly face, at least due to the fact they're in a way 'cousin' stories

I honestly see the SC being released in late November of 2012. Giving it some space away from the Hobbit. I honestly would prefer them to not make another movie, rather then to cut down the budget to much. The visuals in the Silver Chair are so important. You have the giants, the owls, the whole underworld sequence. I don't think they can do the movie justice on 100 million. 140 million would be about right. It's better to stop the movies while the visual quality still measure up to the first 3. The reason they were able to cut the effects budget so much for VDT was because the story didn't require as many special effects. No big battles, not as many animals to render, etc. Also the fact they filmed in way less locations. However, they have to get the visuals in SC right, or it will fail horribly.

I agree, a cheaply done SC will be a disaster - I want the scene of Jill and Owls, the whole Parliment of Owls to be done in a breahtaking manner, magical and mysterious and beautiful like they are, the Underworld design, and of course Rilian's ultimate duel with LotGK! Advantage of SC though is that it too won't require as many locations as, for example, PC or LWW, with some efforts it can be limited and money saved up for effects I think about 130 million could still be good if they can't reach 140. A dream would be PC's 200, but I don't think that will happen...

I don't know when, but SC should be released sometime in 2012 or early 2013. FriendofNarnia2's right that the Hobbit will be a hard film to compete with, so they should release the film a while before or after that.

As for it being greenlit, I have no idea how this process works, but I would hope it'd be greenlit somewhere in mid-spring to early summer. And as for budget? I also don't want a cheap SC, so I hope they'll get close to VDT's budget.