OK, so quick recap before we get Japan's numbers from this weekend:

VDT has so far grossed $103.5 million in the U.S. and exactly $275 million foreign bringing the total to approximately $378.5 million.

Our hopes are that VDT will break the $400 million barrier. At this point, IF all our hopes rode on Japan, then it'd have to bring in $21.5 million. Sounds easy, right? After all, LWW brought in $57 million and even PC brought in $27 million. -And in many markets VDT is doing better than PC, even a few have done better than LWW. This is certainly the case in China, where the first film grossed $7 million but the third has so far (reportedly) grossed $19 million.

But wait! Cultures distinctly similar to North America, specifically South Korea and Taiwan, are not showing the same upward trend. In fact Taiwan is showing a downward trend from movie to movie. South Korea has VDT squarely between LWW & PC.

So, to make things clear, there are still three equally valid possibilities:

1: VDT does better in Japan than either LWW or PC, following the trend seen in China.

2: VDT in Japan is somewhere between LWW & PC, following after South Korea.

3: VDT's gross from Japan falls short of LWW and PC's, following in the footsteps of Taiwan.

So, unfortunately, everything is still up in the air, but I'd like to have some fun and make a few predictions:

If Japan follows scenario #3, then I'd say it is a safe guess that VDT will make at least $15 million and $21.5 million wouldn't be impossible.

If #2, then we'll end up with a total worldwide box office between $405.5 million and $435.5 million. Since PC only made $419 million worldwide, VDT could beat PC by only getting $41 million in Japan.
This is surprisingly achievable.

If #1, then no contest. VDT is a bigger box office success than PC at more than $436 million worldwide. A green-light for the next movie is practically guaranteed.

OK folks. So, here we go...
What will the outcome be?

I sure hope Japan pulls through with their money! I want to see another Narnia movie!

@Movie Aristotle: I'm not going to quote your entire post, as much fun as it was, but here's my take on it:

I don't think number 1 is a possibility. One huge factor in the increase between movies is that China's east coast has seen dramatic economic improvement of late. More Chinese can afford to go to the movies than before. Japan has had a relatively strong economy all along, so that's not a factor.

I do think that numbers 2 and 3 are quite likely. Unfortunately, I have no idea why VDT did so poorly in Taiwan compared to PC, so I don't know if there are parallels in the Japanese market.

We are down to the very end of the race basically. Let's hope VDT can pull through to $400 if not more! I am not making any assumptions at this point, but I hope it does well!

@Movie Aristotle, I bet for Scenario 2.

Kind regards,

Pavel Rezvushkin

I have one concern with Japan, and I hope I'm wrong.... but my concern is that the release date was so far out the movie piracy will take a pretty big chunk out of VDT's movie box office in Japan. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what happened with PC, and I'm worried that's what will happen here.

Either way, we're going to see VDT's foreign box office pass PC's foreign box office, which is pretty cool.

when will we know how much Japan made yesterday? do we have to wait until Monday?

Come on Japan! VDT is a great movie, and we want a fourth (and maybe a fifth if both SC and MN are greenlit!)

Let's hope VDT can pull through to $400 if not more!

Um... I think VDT has already passed $400... Right now we're hoping for $400 million.

I have one concern with Japan, and I hope I'm wrong.... but my concern is that the release date was so far out the movie piracy will take a pretty big chunk out of VDT's movie box office in Japan. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what happened with PC, and I'm worried that's what will happen here.

I wouldn't worry. PC was released in Japan 5 days after it was released in North America, so I doubt that the wait had anything to do with piracy.

LWW was released in Japan on March 3, which was just short of 4 months after the North American release, and yet it made 57 million dollars in Japan.

After a long long waiting, I watched VDT twice now.
In 2D with Japanese subtitles on the opening night and in 3D with Japanese dub in the early morning today(Sunday).

Each time, the theater was half empty...
I think, I hope, it was just because there was some screens to watch there.(In 2D or 3D, in English or Japanese.)

On the opening evening PC was on air for the first time in TV, and yesterday LWW was also on air.
I don't know how many audiences come to the theater because of it.

By the way, today I went to IKSPIARI at Tokyo Disney Resort to watch VDT and take some photos of mini Dawn Treader.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/41751993@N03/

Thanks for the photos Peace and Love. I like the mini Dawn Treader

It is worrying that the cinemas have only been half full I hope this situation changes soon.

Bon voyage VDT!

Kind regards,

Pavel Rezvushkin

Yes, hope it does well in Japan.
Does anyone know anything about that?

Any news about Japan numbers so far? Or is it way too early to know?

Can our Japan-based friends tell us anything about the lead up to VDT? Were early reviews positive, negative, or mixed? Was the marketing strong? Was there any buzz? It sounds like VDT may be on the same path in Japan as it was in Taiwan, which would lead to a disappointing 12 million when all is said and done.

there's been a bunch of buzz in Japan. Over on AslansCountry.com, I wrote up a story last night about the Japanese promotion. There's tons of positive buzz out there, so there's hope it will translate to a big opening...