The total grosses would have you believe otherwise, but the biggest drops from LWW to VDT occurred in North America, Australia and United Kingdom.

*Almost bites tongue about these three having good taste in movies*

That's an odd comment, given North America is included- most people in internet consider us to have horrible taste, overall, since many "horrible" movies do great business here.

SilverSea
VDT's foreign/international gross is $272.4 while PC's is $278.0. It is sure to pass that mark!
As for worldwide grosses, VDT has $375 while PC has $419.6. As others have noted before, with Japan it has an outside chance at it, with the help of Venezuela. I think it's safer to say it won't reach it though, but $400 should be in the bag.

No, sorry SilverSea, Worldwide box office grosses for PC have not been passed. There is a good chance though that VDT's known foreign box office earnings of $272.1 million will pass PC's foreign box office earnings of $278 million in the future.

The total grosses would have you believe otherwise, but the biggest drops from LWW to VDT occurred in North America, Australia and United Kingdom.

*Almost bites tongue about these three having good taste in movies*

Believe me, they don't . It wasn't so long ago that films like Little Fockers, Tron and Megamind were being praised to the skies in BOM news articles, unlike VDT. Tron:legacy was better received than VDT, and received about $2 million more than did VDT in Australia. But it is only now catching up on VDT's Worldwide total, now that it has opened in France last week, its last opening, I believe.

Megamind, which earned $15 million in Australia, is way down the list on $319 approx worldwide, whilst Little Fockers, which earned $18 million in Australia, is yet to earn more than $300 mill worldwide. Tell, me, W4J, do you really know anyone daft enough to suggest to her parents that movie is a good date to take his girlfriend to?

As a parent, I really fail to see what was so great about a movie like Little Fockers or its Meet the Parents prequel. When a massive 68% voted No of those who responded to a query whether there should be another sequel to Little Fockers, I am wondering at the intelligence of film makers who made that movie in the first place.

And when a poor rating film like Cats and Dogs got a sequel last year, The revenge of Kitty Galore, with an equally abysmal Worldwide total, I am wondering why we are worrying about getting SC greenlit.

OK folks, I'll admit that I've been busy lately, but I don't think I've seen anyone post this link yet: http://www.narniafans.com/archives/11349

Paul Martin comments on an apparently trustworthy Box Office Report from an unstated source (Fox perhaps?). The report reads:

To date, Dawn Treader has made $102 million at the domestic B.O. – a number that Warner Bros.’ pop toon Yogi Bear ($93 million) has yet to hit. Such good news has spurred talks between Fox and Walden Media about bringing the fourth C.S. Lewis book The Silver Chair to the screen.

It goes on to say:

The second [Narnia] film left a less-than-satisfied flavor in the audiences, and Treader marked a return to the spirit of The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,” observed Fox senior VP of distribution Chris Aronson, about the masses’ desire to climb aboard. “Dawn Treader provided more heart and a whimsical sense of adventure.

(Emphasis added to both quotes.)

If this report is correct, and I assume Paul Martin would not have made it a news story if is wasn't, then we were correct in assuming that passing $100 million domestically would start the ball rolling. Evidently Fox is pleased with audience attendance to Dawn Treader so far.

I'm thinking that our prediction of a $400 million SC greenlight is correct. Just a couple of more weeks before the opening in Japan...

With luck, Dawn Treader can make it to $103 million domestically over the weekend...

I'm thinking that our prediction of a $400 million SC greenlight is correct. Just a couple of more weeks before the opening in Japan...

I would imagine that they are more interested in their cut of the gross than the actual gross. It's not a linear equation. By my calculations (which may very well be off, I'm not an industry insider), they have earned back the production cost, but not by much. They are still pretty deep in the hole with the cost of marketing and prints.

This does not mean that the franchise is doomed. Given that VDT has proven to be dramatically more profitable that PC, which didn't even make back it's massive production cost, let alone the 175 mil they spent on marketing, I would be shocked if the people at Walden aren't already willing to go ahead with a 4th film. Also, there is still money to be made (possibly a lot of money) in Japan, as well as DVD, Blu-Ray, and TV licensing. If VDT's stronger legs were due to audience approval, rather than the holiday bump and lack of strong competition, VDT might even do better with DVD sales. Who knows?

The big question mark is Fox. How long are they willing to wait for profitability to consider this movie worthwhile?

No, sorry SilverSea, Worldwide box office grosses for PC have not been passed. There is a good chance though that VDT's known foreign box office earnings of $272.1 million will pass PC's foreign box office earnings of $278 million in the future.

Actually the 272 mil foreign figure is dated 2/6, a week ago. Depending on how recent the $19 mil China figure is, it might have put VDT over the 278 mil mark.

With luck, Dawn Treader can make it to $103 million domestically over the weekend...

As luck would have it, with weekend estimates, VDT has now earned $102,994,000 at the North American BO. Just short of that $103M. Unless estimates are lower than actuals, but not until tomorrow will we know for sure.

@narnian1: why isn't the UK in this thread red?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&p=123343#p123343

@Movie Aristotle: Paul named his source in his story. Where the source got their information, I don't know. The full article is here.

Boxofficemojo.com says:

The Chronicles Of Narnia: Voyage Of The Dawn Treader opened top in Venezuela on a dazzling $425,000 and the overall tally has reached an outstanding $275m.

I have absolutely no idea how good this is. How did the other ones do their opening weekends there?

220chrisTian, Oops. Corrected that. Thanks.

MagiciansNephew1, Where in BOM? I've just checked but can't find it.
LWW's total in Venezuela is unknown, BOM doesn't have it listed. PC finished with $3,292,014. So we waited out and see.

Narnian1, it's in the forum section, the box office derby selection, and on the last page of the thread that says International Box Office. It's somewhere near the top. I know that it's in the forum section, but it was someone quoting some an article from a reliable source.

MagiciansNephew1, thanks. Just checked. They got it from screendaily.com I tried checking that site but one needs to be a paid subscriber to view the article.

Hmm I'm unsure how 'dazzling' a 425,000 opening weekend would be if PC grossed more than $3 million in Venezuela. Assuming that VDT can manage a 4x multiplier in it's complete run that's still less than $2 million

Hey, we should be grateful at this point even for 2Million! Besides, VDT's drops have not been as steep as PC's. Small openings, but tighter hold on box office.

I would imagine that they are more interested in their cut of the gross than the actual gross. It's not a linear equation... The big question mark is Fox. How long are they willing to wait for profitability to consider this movie worthwhile?

On the previous page I give a rather lengthy analysis of the box office numbers, the studios' cut, video sales, etc. and my guess as to when we'll hear about a green-light to Silver Chair. http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&start=896

The quote from NarniaFans is simply an encouraging assurance that our predictions are not far off.

@220ChrisTian: Thanks for pointing that out. It was rather late last night when I found the article...

I'm not quite sure where to put this information, but since this thread is all about Narnia making money and its competition, I figured this would be the proper place.

Some not-so-cool news: Disney just announced that Tron Legacy is coming out on home-video on April 5th. That's three days before Narnia 3 comes out.
http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=5876

Of course, it had to be the same week