VDT made an estimated $555,000 over the weekend, a 37.3% drop. This is higher than LWW (31.1%) but lower than PC (53.1%).

The estimated domestic total for VDT is now $102,586,000.
The estimated worldwide total for VDT is now $375,186,000.

Despite losing a number of theaters, VDT has had two good holds in a row. It has started to make its way to discount theaters, and since the DVD release is still two months away, it could gross $105 million domestically.

Hi all,

Can somebody plz explain why the foreign numbers on BOM are 1.4 million lower compared to the foreign numbers of screendaily or hollywood reporter? It apllies to all fox movies bytheway.

Now which numbers are correct: the 274 million reported by screendaily/hollywood reporter or 272.6 million reported by BOM??

@veritas: can't help you.

@Clive: I thought it was Feb 11, as I posted on the previous page. It was Feb 4 [IMDb] but I think they changed it to Feb 11 to coincide with the Feb 13 special premiere in Japan.

@narnian1: how's the vdt/pc/lww comparison thread doing?

Hi all,

Can somebody plz explain why the foreign numbers on BOM are 1.4 million lower compared to the foreign numbers of screendaily or hollywood reporter? It apllies to all fox movies bytheway.

Now which numbers are correct: the 274 million reported by screendaily/hollywood reporter or 272.6 million reported by BOM??

I'm not sure, but if you look at BOM's numbers by country, there are several incomplete numbers or some that haven't been updated in awhile. That could have something to do with it. I hope that HR's numbers are right, though!

BOM is down to 272.4 million now. My guess is that BOM takes a bit more care to verify its numbers before it posts them, so their numbers might lag a little bit. The actual number is probably somewhere in between, I'd think.

I really hope for big things from DT in Japan... domestically weve had the lowest day on record... of course this is a regular thing to happen but it still hurts a little to see with just $31,691. Id say Dt is almost out of puff!

Im pretty sure that between Venesuala and Japan we will see it pass 400mil, but im anxious to see how close to, or how far past PC we can get! If we fall right in the middle of Japans takings for LWW and PC than we really do have a good shot!

Ok, so VDT has aproximately 25 million to make now between Japan and Venezuela. Even a pessimistic view of it earning only 20 million in Japan and 5 million in Venezuela and we've still hit the target.

I have to say, even though we haven't reached the end of Our Voyage yet, for a while I thought we were going to be stuck in some dead sea with no wind behind us!

However bad the movie is (and I've made my opinions known), I do want to continue with this series. Filmmakers CAN learn from their mistakes. Sometimes. We can hope that The Silver Chair (which is my favorite book) will be made a little more solidly than the last.

Agreed. And, c'mon, the end of the film series would be the end of NarniaWeb as we know it.

I really hope for big things from DT in Japan... domestically weve had the lowest day on record... of course this is a regular thing to happen but it still hurts a little to see with just $31,691. Id say Dt is almost out of puff!

Im pretty sure that between Venesuala and Japan we will see it pass 400mil, but im anxious to see how close to, or how far past PC we can get! If we fall right in the middle of Japans takings for LWW and PC than we really do have a good shot!

I do hope for big things, too! It would be great to pass 400mil. The VDT is still in cinemas in the US, so there's still a chance to support it! I have seen the film several times, but I'll see it again here in Denmark.

Hello All.
As promised, here is an update to our landmark chart:

Worldwide Landmark Chart:

$155 million (production cost of film)

$249 million (Eragon worldwide take)

$261 million (Knight & Day worldwide take)

$255 million (Our lowest reasonable estimate for SC greenlight)

$310 million (Old low estimate for SC greenlight)

$349 million (Our middling estimate for SC greenlight) -estimated by adding PC's profits to VDT's $155 million production cost.

$350 million (VDT becomes statistically more profitable than PC)

$372 million (The Golden Compass worldwide take) -a comparable fantasy movie that wasn't greenlit for a sequel.

$375 million (Dawn Treader's current worldwide estimate) –excellent

$377 million (Beauty & the Beast’s and Slumdog Millionaire’s worldwide totals) –The first, a fantasy classic by Disney. The second, a more contemporary film by Fox.

$383 million (Ice Age & Die Hard 4’s worldwide totals) -Two other Fox franchises

$400 million (Box Office Mojo's estimate for SC greenlight) - http://www.narniaweb.com/2010/12/how-will-dawn-treader-do-at-the-box-office/

$401 million (The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor’s worldwide total)- a movie with a similar domestic box office that still made it past $400 milllion worldwide.

$419 million (Prince Caspian worldwide take) -probable greenlight if VDT makes it this far.

$512 million (Highest estimate for VDT profitability and SC greenlight)

Domestic Landmark Chart

$70.1 million (The Golden Compass domestic gross) -The Anti-Narnia film. Also a domestic flop of a film.

$75.0 million (Eragon domestic gross) -Fox's first attempt at launching a fantasy series. A flop.

$82.9 million (Charlotte's Web domestic gross) -Walden's 4th highest grossing film domestically until Dawn Treader beat it.

$88.7 million (Percy Jackson and the Olympians domestic gross) -Fox's new fantasy franchise from earlier this year. Also was Fox's #2 movie in 2010 until Dawn Treader beat it.

$93.0 million (60% of Dawn Treader's production budget) -According to Aravis Narnia, this is the number VDT needed to beat domestically in order to ensure that it cannot be considered a flop. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&start=624

$96.1 million (62% of Dawn Treader's production budget) -PC only made 62% of its production budget during its entire run. A good number to beat to help ensure SC.

$98.7 million (Date Night's domestic gross) -If VDT crosses this threshold, it will be Fox's top grossing film domestically of 2010.

$100 million (Dawn Treader becomes Fox's first $100 million film since Avatar) -quite a landmark.

$101 million (Journey to the Center of the Earth domestic gross) -Beating this number would make VDT Walden's third highest grossing film, after LWW & PC respectively. Probable greenlight for SC from Walden at this point.

$102 million (Dawn Treader's current domestic gross) -good

$104 million (The Princess & The Frog domestic gross) –Disney’s newest traditionally animated film.

$108 million (The Princess Diaries) –The 401st highest grossing film domestically.

$131 million (The Last Airbender's domestic gross) -Before December, we predicted that VDT would do better than this film.

$141 million (PC's domestic gross) -Possible greenlight for SC from Fox.

$291 million (LWW's domestic gross) -Automatic greenlight for SC.

$334 million (Alice in Wonderland's domestic gross) -The top fantasy movie of 2010.

Track Record:
Since my last update to this list, Dawn Treader has beaten Date Night's domestic gross, and Journey to the Center of the Earth's domestic gross. It has also soundly beaten Golden Compass's worldwide gross.

Analysis:
Currently Dawn Treader has made $102 million domestically, which is about 65% of the $155 million production budget and exactly 40% of the estimated total budget of $255 million. At the time of my writing, Dawn Treader is the 434th highest grossing film domestically. (This is of all films ever released in the U.S., but is not adjusted for inflation.) VDT is the highest grossing film from Fox or Walden released in 2010, and is the 3rd highest grossing film from Walden ever. VDT is the 21st highest grossing Children’s Book Adaptation ever, and is the 17th highest grossing live action fantasy film, predictably behind the Lord of the Rings Trilogy, the seven Harry Potter films, and the two previous Narnia movies. Alice in Wonderland, Clash of the Titans, The Last Airbender and Hook fill in the rest. When we combine movie totals for each series we find that Narnia is the 3rd highest grossing fantasy franchise ever, after Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings, respectively. VDT is the 4th highest grossing Christian movie ever, behind The Passion of the Christ and the two previous Narnia films. It is the 23rd highest grossing 3D film.

Switching to the Worldwide numbers: Dawn Treader has made $375 million worldwide and is expected to reach $400 million after opening in Japan and Venezuela. Our current gross of $375 million is roughly 241% of the production budget and 147% of the total budget. Using FantasiaKitty’s model, (http://www.narniaweb.com/2011/01/dawn-treaders-fifth-week-at-the-box-office/) we calculate that Fox/Walden have so far made $185 million from VDT, which is over the production budget but only 72% of the total budget. Fortunately, movies make most of their money from Video & TV, so the best is yet to come for the studios. At the time of this writing, VDT is the 146th highest grossing film ever (worldwide), which means that the film truly is doing very well overseas.

Prediction:
Because of Japan’s late release date, I’m guessing that any greenlighting for Silver Chair won’t happen until after the video release. Japan opens about 6 weeks before the release on Blu-Ray in April. If VDT barely passes the $400 million mark, as some have predicted, then it is likely that it will not pass it until after April 8, and at that point it is the video sales that count more than the box office. I’m guessing that the announcement for Silver Chair won’t come until at least a week after the video is selling, and possibly two weeks. If Dawn Treader is a phenomenal success in Japan, and the worldwide gross gets close to PC’s $419 million, then we may see a greenlight sooner.

Beautiful analysis, Movie Aristotle! It all looks good!

Something you need to consider for Fox is Black Swan. It also released in 2010 and according to Variety, it will probably pass VDT's $100M domestic at the BO. According to BOM, Black Swan's foreign totals are weak but the domestic totals are $97M and climbing.

Fast approaching the $100 million mark at the domestic box office, Fox Searchlight's "Black Swan" is poised to become the top U.S. release of 2010 for parent studio 20th Century Fox.

Until "Swan," Searchlight's parent studio Fox was having something of a down year. Its highest grossers were "Date Night," with $98 million, and "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader," which is Fox's top domestic earner to date with $102.7 million. While both "Narnia" and "Swan" were released at the beginning of December, "Swan" is poised to eclipse "Narnia" some time in the next two weeks. Fox's 2009 "Avatar," however, still stands as the studio's highest earner in 2010 with $408 million domestically.

Both films have performed well for Fox overseas. "Narnia" has cumed close to $300 million worldwide, with the most love coming from France and the U.K.

And here's news from Film Business Asia on VDT at the BO in China!

At the bottom of the top ten, Tron:Legacy and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader have now made RMB126.7 million ($19.2 million) and RMB125.1 million ($19 million) respectively after a month in cinemas.

$19M in a month is good, right? So how did LWW and PC do in China?

@narnian1: how's the vdt/pc/lww comparison thread doing?....

And here's news from Film Business Asia on VDT at the BO in China!

At the bottom of the top ten, Tron:Legacy and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader have now made RMB126.7 million ($19.2 million) and RMB125.1 million ($19 million) respectively after a month in cinemas.

$19M in a month is good, right? So how did LWW and PC do in China?

China's BO is terrific. VDT is by far the highest grossing Narnia there. LWW topped out at $7.8M and PC at $12.5M.

As for all the comparisons, since last update there have been several changes. I can't list them all but I will link to my post. Israel and Kuwait went down though, I assume BOM had put in estimates before and with actuals coming in- it was less than originally thought. In Israel VDT is was still behind the others so it's just even farther behind. In Kuwait, it had more than PC but now stands with less.

One thing seems clear to me though, Narnia has passed PC in many places and even LWW in others. The world is still interested in Narnia. The total grosses would have you believe otherwise, but the biggest drops from LWW to VDT occurred in North America, Australia and United Kingdom. So, though it dropped drastically in these three markets, in the rest it has remained just about average throughout (with only $5M of a difference or so)*. So I'd say yes, most the world is still interested.

http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&p=123343#p123343

*Netherlands- LWW topped out at $6M, VDT shows as $889K, which is a drastic drop but BOM hasn't updated its individual gross since Dec 19, (it released there on Dec 9). But the its total gross is counted, remember:

Note:
Overall foreign totals are updated weekly for most currently playing movies.
The country breakdowns are updated less frequently and do not necessarily add up to the foreign totals.

The total grosses would have you believe otherwise, but the biggest drops from LWW to VDT occurred in North America, Australia and United Kingdom.

*Almost bites tongue about these three having good taste in movies*

So we've passed PC's worldwide gross with China's 19 million?