Thank you GF for your optimistic post. I could stand a lowered budget and straight to DVD (branded as Fox Faith even), but not a hybrid mix of story. I'm holding hope we'll be surprised.

It's fun to speculate, but remember to take it all with a grain of salt and not feel defeated or victorious at any given step in the process until that announcement comes.

Point taken.

I share your view that I'd like VDT to hit $100 million domestically, and I'd also like $400 million worldwide, because they are such nice round numbers.

I may be totally wrong, but anything that the worldwide public can give almost $400 million to at the box office isn't just going to be scrapped!

I couldn't agree with you more, which is why I totally disagree with this last statement:

My crystal ball says that yes, there will be at least one more Narnia movie, but there's going to be a catch. Dramatically lowered budget, straight to DVD, some kind of hybridized story (HHB + LB, or MN + LB), something like that.

Lowered budget? Probably. Straight to DVD? Doubt it. Hybridized story? Never. I'm sure that both Walden and the C. S. Lewis Estate would draw the line there. It seems that they, and we the fans, would rather not see any more Narnia films than to see a poorly-made straight-to-DVD hybrid release.

I agree with you, Movie Aristotle.

BOM has VDT at an estimated $355,568,000 total. We're getting to our milestones. It will hit $100M domestically by next weekend; that's no longer a question in my mind. It will probably freefall after that, which is fine.

$355,568,000
+ $5,000,000 more in the US
+ $25,000,000 in Japan
= $385,568,000

It just needs to get about $15M more... from somewhere.

$355,568,000
+ $5,000,000 more in the US
+ $25,000,000 in Japan
= $385,568,000

It just needs to get about $15M more... from somewhere.

Looking at it that way, $400 million seems practically guaranteed. Coming off of a $9 million international weekend, the international countries will definitely make at least $15 million more. The $5 million from the US sounds about right...so unless the movie bombs in Japan, it should only be a matter of time until the movie reaches that milestone.

Here's a really interesting essay about how Hollywood movies actually make money:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/5885934/How-f ... make-money

That is the most interesting and eye-opening article about studio box-office that I've read yet. I'd encourage everyone to read it (or at least the first part of it). It pretty much confirms our suspicion that they won't announce SC until after the DVD release. Great find, GrizzledFish!

The following article confirms what I've been saying for a while: December was a bad month in general. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3038&p=.htm

I'm sure that Fox will take this into account when analyzing Dawn Treader's box office. Maybe Dawn Treader won't do as well as PC, but PC wasn't released in the bottom of a recession. I'd say that lower attendance was due to audiences having less to spend and/or more expensive ticket prices, NOT from a lack of interest on the part of Narnia fans or audiences in general. Considering VDT's success so far despite a poor opening, I know that there is still life in the franchise.

Consider who wants the next film made: Several Academy Award-winning artists from the crew, the C. S. Lewis Estate (Producer Douglas Gresham), the co-founder and President of Walden Media (Michael Flaherty), and the owner of Walden Media (Billionaire Philip Anschutz). The only thing they have to do is convince Fox, which on Dawn Treader's initial disappointing opening weekend said

...it succeeded in its aim of resurrecting the franchise and was “excited” about its overall prospects.

-and since then has said nothing to the contrary.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/narnia-tourist-bomb-north-american-box-office.html

Dawn Treader has gone on to do well over the holidays, and is expected to pass $100 million domestically soon.

My friends, I know we haven't reached $400 million quite yet, but since I'm feeling optimistic tonight, I'd like to go ahead and predict that we will be seeing The Chronicles of Narnia: The Silver Chair in theaters within the next few years. I think it's time to read the book again to prepare...

Oy vey, beaten by that dreadful Yogi Bear movie? I'm no fan of this film and that still upsets me. Doesn't YB have something like a 19% rotten rating? Even the trailers looked like crap.

I have yet to watch Yogi Bear, even though I do like the premise. Why? Because I want VDT to succeed without competition. The only other movie I have watched this season in theatres is Black Swan.

There is no way that VDT can be considered a flop. Not only it is NOT a flop by standard definitions domestically, but it has made a profit globally. At least Waterworld did not make 60% revenue domestically- but because it made a global profit and the VHS sold well, it is still NOT regarded as a box office bomb.

Dear Douglas Gresham: PLEASE go ape on whomever wants to hybridize the stories. That would not work in any way.

Dawn Treader has gone on to do well over the holidays, and is expected to pass $100 million domestically soon.

My friends, I know we haven't reached $400 million quite yet, but since I'm feeling optimistic tonight, I'd like to go ahead and predict that we will be seeing The Chronicles of Narnia: The Silver Chair in theaters within the next few years. I think it's time to read the book again to prepare...

It would also be good to add that once this does reach $100 million, it will be the only Fox film of 2010 to have done so domestically. No other Fox distributed film reached $100 million last year, so that is another milestone for Narnia.

$400 million worldwide is likely now. According to the Hollywood Reporter, we're at $357 million right now. Assuming 50% drops in holdover markets (including the US) from this point on, that should get VODT to $377 million. Venezuela could add a few million. Caspian grossed $3 million there, and with VODT performing better than that in most South American countries, you can expect a little more. That means VODT would need to gross $19 million in Japan to get us to $400 million. Passing Caspian's worldwide total is also possible, but that would take more than $35 million from Japan. Possible but not sure.

Only one wide release opens in the US next week, so the theater count loss won't be too bad next week. The following week offers two more, so VODT could take another hit then, but still looks good for $104 million or so.

Welcome to Narniaweb martindale!

Monday number: Est. $675,000 +146.2% since last Monday.

Domestic: $98,743,000

Only 1,3 Million $ left!

I hope that estimate is right.

I went to see it today at 12:40 in 3D. There were around 45 people in that theatre. Which is very good. Many families. People were laughing and enjoying the movie.

More than 100M, I want it to reach 102M. Why? Because that way, Narnia will definitely be Walden Media's top franchise. If it is the most lucrative one, then the more reason to greenlight SC.

Some more food for thought...

Everyone might want to take a look at the 2010 worldwide leaderboard:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 010&p=.htm

Narnia is in 13th at the moment. It will pass Karate Kid momentarily (if it hasn't passed it already), and will then be behind Tangled, which it is almost certain NOT to overtake because while Tangled (like Narnia), still hasn't opened in Japan, Tangled hasn't opened yet in the UK either. Tangled is also holding stronger. So I don't think Narnia has a chance against it.

This is okay though. Narnia will still be the 12th biggest film of 2010 worldwide (and even if it somehow DID beat Tangled for the 11th spot, Clash of the Titans is completely out of reach so it's only one spot difference anyway if you're worried about spots!)

Why this is important:

Industry talk is now saying that the announcement of a greenlight for a sequel (possibly even multiple sequels) to Tron Legacy is imminent:
http://www.movies.com/movie-news/movie- ... enlit/2419

What does that mean for us?

Tron cost more to produce, and to market, than Narnia 3 did. Yet, while Tron has beaten Narnia domestically, it will NOT come anywhere close to beating Narnia's WW gross. Like Narnia 3, Tron has pretty much done its thing, except that Tron already collected its Japan money, whereas Narnia 3 hasn't. So when all is said and done, Narnia will probably beat Tron in the neighborhood of $50 million or so WW.

Tron cost anywhere from $15-$25 million more to produce than Narnia 3, and (as anyone who has walked outside in the last year probably intuits) had a MUCH higher marketing price tag.

Again, every franchise is different, but if they're already greenlighting sequel(s) to a movie that has been less profitable than "our" movie, I'd say this bodes very well not only for the chances of TSC being made, but for how soon the announcement might come.

In regards to the possibility that Yogi Bear will beat VDT domestically and the worries associated with this, look at the overseas numbers.

VDT: $257,500,000
Yogi Bear: $13,300,000

In response to GrizzledFish: Although Narnia may finish 12th worldwide, it's domestic percentage of the WW gross is lower than all of the films above it. The reason Tron Legacy is on pace for a sequel, I would guess, is that it fared much better than VDT domestically.

Yes, I know VDT will destroy Yogi Bear worldwide. I just want to see it win in the USA, too.

I think we need $400 M. Narnia and Tron are two completely different animals, and one doesn't really have an effect on the other. I agree Tron shouldn't be given a sequel, as I'm not even sure the first one made a profit. But I don't think that Fox would want to jump off a cliff just because Disney wants to do so.

I mean, green-lighting SC would not be a bad decision, and I expect it to be done after the Japan release. But if Fox doesn't think like I do, they won't green-light SC just because Disney is giving Tron one.

It's more likely that SC gets made because of the fact that Fox is completely desperate right now. Look at there upcoming schedule. Alvin 3 won't do as well as its predecessor, because the novelty of the talking animals is wearing off. Yogi shows that. And Fox can't wait till 2014 to make a profit. So expect SC in fall-early winter of 2012.

EDIT: Just to make this clear, Fox can't wait till 2014 to make a profit is because that is when Avatar 2 comes out.