Wednesday gross:$292,249 (-10%)

Total Domestic:
$95,424,634

98 Million$ after the weekend probably

Anyone want to take bets on whether or not Dawn Treader beats Journey to the Center of the Earth by this time next week?

I think going into this holiday weekend VDT should be at $95.7 million. Since it will be losing theaters but still benefit from the MLK holiday, I'll be cautious and estimate $3.5 million Friday thru Monday.

That would put VDT at $99.2 million with 3 days left in the week. So it would be the following weekend that it would pass Journey to the Center of the Earth. Hope I'm wrong and it does better.

Yes, I don't know many other websites that hate Narnia more than the folks over at BOM (especially whoever it is who posts the articles). So considering that someone who is quite biased against the films said something good about it, is always nice.

You got that right, FriendofNarnia2 . I remember the reviewer they used to have over there who was clearly biased against the first two films. No longer there...

Sow VDT might pas PC's worldwide numbers?

Sow VDT might pas PC's worldwide numbers?

Has a good chance.

But it lost 1,110 (-39.4%) of its theaters in the USA and will be in 1,704 over the holiday period. I was hoping it could hold on to 2,000 but it was not to be. Still should be enough to put it close to $100 million by the start of the following weekend. BOM theater count link: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2011&wk=02&p=.htm

Prince Caspian was down to 1,462 theaters at the start of its sixth week so VDT is still showing better staying power. BOM PC daily link: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=narnia2.htm

GlimGlum,

yup, the big slash finally happened. It was a matter of time. At least it has more than PC had a the same point, which is very good considering it opened in more locations. It still has enough to cross $100 thankfully.

Wow, I'm surprised that it's losing so many theaters, yet tangled is not. I'm really annoyed with that movie, even though I have heard it was good. It has been a major thorn in VDT side. It will still keep above 2000 theaters, even though it has been out 2 weeks longer.

This movie is kind of a mind-trip in that it has a way of being consistently disappointing (domestically) in the short run relative to estimates (day to day, weekend to weekend), yet somehow it's going to add up to an okay domestic total in the long run!

Internationally though, wow, this is stellar. Tron is crushing it domestically, yet it's crushing Tron internationally. With Japan and a (conservative) $20 million still to come, at least $10 millioin more from China, and $36 million to go overall, this is a near-lock to beat Caspian's international score.

A lot of folks will need to eat their post-opening weekend words once this is all said and done!

I just read this today and it's really interesting that the Disney marketing exec who was there during LWW days is coming over to Fox to do domestic marketing.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118030073?refCatId=13

This movie is kind of a mind-trip in that it has a way of being consistently disappointing (domestically) in the short run relative to estimates (day to day, weekend to weekend), yet somehow it's going to add up to an okay domestic total in the long run!

Interesting analysis, GrizzledFish. VDT has performed in an unusual way here in the USA.

I did find a movie from last year that performed very closely to VDT: The Princess and the Frog. BOM link.

At this time last year it had earned $93.5 million going into the very same MLK holiday as this weekend. It was in 1,777 theaters (VDT = 1,704) and earned $4 million over the 4 day period. It ended up with $104.4 million USA domestic.

So if VDT is ahead by $2.2 million and if it performs about the same the rest of its run, it should end up with between $105-$110 million USA domestic. And I also have a feeling that VDT is going to do well in the much cheaper discount theaters. Every million counts right now.

Tangled only was released in Australia last weekend. It seems to be popular and has been advertised for ages. Unfortunately I can't go to any more screenings of VDT, as it is not now at my local cinema. Apparently the new film on the block is Burlesque.

However, VDT still is screening at a few cinemas across Sydney that I can't get to this weekend, especially as it is my birthday, too, not only the anniversary of Martin Luther King Jnr's. . Meanwhile, Megamind which was released in Australia the week after VDT earned less @ $7,080,745 as of 19/12/2010. Although Megamind has done well since November, when it was released in USA, I suspect it hasn't done as well as VDT in Australia or elsewhere. Furthermore, it, too, is on its last week here, and I don't expect to see it advertised in too many theatres next weekend.

Tron which was released a fortnight after VDT here, simultaneous to its USA release, hasn't done all that well either, it would seem. Yes, it has fared somewhat better than VDT in the USA domestic market, and yes, it has been hyped like nothing else, and considerably more so than VDT. And yes, the marketing has been heavily directed to its Men vs Machine genre, with boys being mentioned a lot, the very genre which turns me off somewhat, just perhaps because I am neither a man nor a boy.

But in Australia, as of 19/12/2010, Tron's earnings were $3,319,143. I agree that the Australian totals for BOM need updating severely. So far they put VDT at $7,941,410 as of 19/12/2010. According to the Sunday Telegraph, VDT's earnings should have been somewhat more than $11,000,000, a teensy fraction of it being my money. But when Tron is tying with Megamind at the moment in Worldwide totals, at $293.7 million and when Megamind is also about to finish its run here, then I am beginning to wonder how well Tron really did.

You guys are really smart. I enjoy reading all the posts in this thread.

Current domestic total: $95,424,634
1/13 Thursday: $306,861 (+5%)

1/14 Friday: $675,094 (+120%)
1/15 Saturday: $1,012,641 (+50%)
1/16 Sunday: $759,480 (-25%)
(Weekend: $2,447,215)

1/17 Monday: $683,532 (-10%)
1/18 Tuesday: $136,706 (-80%)
1/19 Wednesday: $109,364 (-20%)
1/20 Thursday: $120,300 (+10%)

1/21 Friday: $330,825 (+175%)
1/22 Saturday: $463,155 (+40%)
That equals $100,022,592!

Those guesses aren't even very optimistic. Therefore, I think $100M by next weekend is guaranteed! I will be excited.

I agree that the Australian totals for BOM need updating severely. So far they put VDT at $7,941,410 as of 19/12/2010. According to the Sunday Telegraph, VDT's earnings should have been somewhat more than $11,000,000.

Thanks for this bit. I've been wondering why they haven't updated its individual gross. The totals have been counted overall for the weekend take. But individual updates sometimes take longer. Just last weekend they did a major update on several other countries, delayed updates. Hopefully they'll up that too soon.

I love all the commentary - which I try to digest. lol Thanks for the updates and analysis! You guys are great!

Anyway, Japan premiere - which cast and crew are going? And when will we know? Cause I'm sure someone from VDT will show up Feb 25! We learned about the US premieres on Nov 11 (for the Dec 9 premiere) and Nov 19 (for the Dec 8 gala) = 3-4 weeks in advance. So I think we should learn something by Feb 1-5 for the Japan premiere!

LWW press conference in Tokyo [Feb 15]
http://georgie-henley.com/gallery/thumb ... p?album=24

LWW premiere in Tokyo [Feb 16]
http://georgie-henley.com/gallery/thumb ... p?album=25

I'm more concerned about Journey to the Center of the Earth. Do you think VDT can pass it's 101 million domestic gross? It's important since all three Narnia films will be Walden Media's top three highest grossing movies if it does, thus giving Fox another reason to make the Silver Chair.

I'm more concerned about Journey to the Center of the Earth. Do you think VDT can pass it's 101 million domestic gross?

Of course it'll pass it! With no problem. VDT should finish with no lower than $105.