Good luck and LoveNarnia4God, and may your Family, Friends, and your entire community survive the flood.

Does anyone know what the same statistics were for Prince Caspian? It had a production budget of $225 million and it made $141,621,490 dollars in USA and $419,651,413 worldwide. Surely it made 60% of its production costs.

Punching in these numbers, it looks like PC needed to make 135 million US dollars in order to pass the 60% mark. In the end, PC made 62% of its production budget domestically.

Wardrobe only needed $108 million in domestic gross and made over $291 million.
LWW made almost 162% of its production budget domestically.

As of yesterday, Dawn Treader has made 61% of its production budget domestically.

So, when comparing domestic gross to production budget, VDT is not yet more profitable than PC, but should be within the next few days! When Dawn Treader makes $96.1 million it will do better domestically than PC. (Keep in mind that PC did better in its opening weekend, so a higher percentage went to the studio, thus the studio made more money. Factoring in the theater's cut, VDT will have to make a bit more than 62% to truly be more profitable for the studio than PC.)

Now let us take a look at worldwide box office as compared to production budget to see how Dawn Treader is doing: (Remember that these statistics are not taking the marketing budget into account, nor is it factoring in the theaters' take.)

LWW: $745 mil worldwide gross /$180 mil production budget = 414%
PC: $419 mil worldwide gross / $225 mil production budget =186%
VDT: $337 mil worldwide gross/ $155 mil production budget =217%

When comparing budget to worldwide gross ratios, VDT is officially a more profitable film than PC.

But what does this mean for SC?

(If I knew LWW's and PC's marketing budget, I could easily compare those ratios as well. Does anyone have that information?)

*Edit:
As long as we are doing mathematics, we shouldn't overlook the obvious:
LWW: $745 mil - $180 mil = $565 mil
PC: $419 mil - $225 mil = $194 mil
VDT: $337 mil - $155 mil = $182 mil

Technically, VDT needs to make $13 mil more before it becomes more profitable in actual dollars, instead of percentages. (At the rate that Dawn Treader is sailing along, I don't think we'll have to wait too long before that happens.)

By the way, I've learned that major critics disliked Narnia so much. They often give Narnia a C or a B- grade. TRON is hurting the Narnia franchise, but to be honest, Jeff Bridges is so phenomenal. His other film, True Grit, got excellent reviews (it's not only him but also the Coen Bros. and the cast) and it's now the top of the box office. Perhaps people are driven by watching TRON and True Grit which are both Bridges's films.

Narnia will not be like The Golden Compass nor Eragon. TGC was slammed by critics for being anti-Christian; Eragon wasn't a very good adaptation. People are now thinking to watch Oscar-bait films like The Fighter or Black Swan and not like Narnia.

Here in the Philippines, Narnia didn't do well. The big malls didn't really advertise Narnia that much and instead posted TRON posters around the mall. It only lasted for two weeks and it was cut after our local film fest last Christmas. However, the other movies like TRON and Little Fockers re-opened after the local film fest, but Narnia didn't. I was truly disappointed with the revenues, and I kinda dislike VDT. The only movie that didn't re-open aside from Narnia is The Fighter, but often Oscar-bait films do last for a week or two.

So it looks like we are counting on Japan to deliver big for VDT. So if we assume that VDT can deliver what PC did in Japan ($27 mill), then that means that between now and mid February (when Japan becomes the last market to premiere), the worldwide box office has to reach $373 million. Aren't we at $337 million as of now? That means that in the next month, VDT has to find $36 million worldwide, which might be a challenge since VDT has opened in all other markets.. BUT it is possible, so let's see what happens.

WillMo, to be fair, not only was Eragon a bad adaptation, it was also a terrible book.

Here's an update to my landmark chart:

$155 million (production cost of film)

$249 million (Eragon worldwide take)

$261 million (Knight & Day worldwide take)

$255 million (Our new lowest reasonable estimate for SC greenlight) -estimated by accounting for marketing costs by adding $100 million to the production cost. http://www.narniaweb.com/2011/01/dawn-treaders-fifth-week-at-the-box-office/

$310 million (Old low estimate for SC greenlight)

$337 million (Dawn Treader's current worldwide estimate) -so far, so good.

$349 million (Our middling estimate for SC greenlight) -estimated by adding PC's profits to VDT's $155 million production cost.

$350 million (VDT becomes statistically more profitable than PC)

$372 million (The Golden Compass worldwide take) -a comparable fantasy movie that wasn't greenlit for a sequel.

$400 million (Box Office Mojo's estimate for SC greenlight; Rumored greenlight for SC and H&HB) -http://www.narniaweb.com/2010/12/how-will-dawn-treader-do-at-the-box-office/ ; http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2229&p=132370&hilit=Horse+Boy+Silver+Chair#p132370

$419 million (Prince Caspian worldwide take) -pretty much an automatic greenlight if VDT makes it this far.

$512 million (Highest estimate for VDT profitability and SC greenlight) -My estimate based on FantasiaKitty's Walden/Fox Guesstimate Profit. http://www.narniaweb.com/2011/01/dawn-treaders-fifth-week-at-the-box-office/

OK, most of you probably object to this last entry, so let me explain:

Firstly, I only used simple Algebra to come to this conclusion, so I'm reasonably sure that my numbers are correct. The answer is close to what I was expecting before I started working the problem, and I've performed a few checks to make sure I got it right. All the same, feel free to check my work:

The studio's cut domestically + The studio's foreign cut = $255 million.
Thanks to FK, we know that the studio's domestic cut = about 75% of the domestic gross.
Also, the studio's foreign cut = about 40% of the foreign gross.

Now, assume there is a number X which is the amount of money that VDT has to make worldwide in order to give the studio a cut of $255 million.

That number X would be made up of the domestic gross + the foreign gross.

Now, the only assumption I made on my own is that VDT will continue to make about 28% of its total gross domestically. That is, America would contribute 28% of the total gross. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=narnia3.htm This means the domestic gross = 28% of X. (The foreign box office would contribute 72% of the total gross, so for our purposes, the foreign take = 72% of X.)

We now have 5 variables and 6 equations, so the laws of algebra guarantee an answer. (You only need one equation per variable in order to solve the problem. The extra equation can be used as an extra check, just in cast the first 5 didn't convince you. )

Well, once you do the math, VDT would have to make $512 million worldwide in order for the studio to make back the $255 million they spent on the film.

This strikes me as a bit high, so I'm wondering about the accuracy of FK's information. Based on this evidence, I'm guessing that FK's guesstimate of Fox/Walden's profit is too low. (Over the next few days, if box office mojo shows that the domestic percentage of the total goes up significantly, then I'll know there was a problem with my assumption, not necessarily FK's info.)

All that to say that I wouldn't be too worried at FK's news story.

Besides, I've yet to see that much of the so-called marketing budget was spent down our way. Yes, there was an exhibition at Warner's Brother's MovieWorld last January. And yes, there was a Royal premiere at which Her Majesty was rumoured to shed tears.

But neither I nor others could get advance bookings, and the girl at the movie theatre couldn't see beyond Harry Potter and Megamind, which also has only another week to run. The movie ads dried up almost immediately, and all we had for publicity was the film reviews, repeats of the unfavourable original one. There were feature ads for all the films on display in the movie showtimes column, including Gulliver's Travels, but not for VDT.

I'm not sure about television since I don't have much access to it, and haven't seen many ads for VDT. I'd also expected promos through the Sunday family newspapers which ran souvenir deals for Tangled and Megamind. I'm still wondering why the Sunday Telegraph, a News Corp/Fox newspaper did not run such a promo for VDT as well?

There was a promo for Hungry Jacks, with four plastic toys on offer, at $2 each. Though I'm not 100% sure of Hungry Jack's American connections. And there was a double drink combo deal which is only okay if you like to drink lots of Coca Cola. This deal has gone already. I also bought at the ticket office an Aslan keyring and kaleidoscope, and reckon there won't be any left by now.

All in all, I'm still wondering how this $100 million marketing budget was spent. Especially after reading WillMo for_the_win's post above about the situation in the Philippines. And I agree with him that the film critics really hate Narnia. They would really rather have Golden Compass or Eragon than anything as overtly Christian as VDT.

It's a bit weird the way profits are made. A couple of months ago i read that the 5th Harry Potter (Order of the Phoenix) made a big loss, despite it's huge worldwide gross. Very interesting read http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/studio- ... ccounting/

So what was VDT's total budget including marketing and everything else involved in moviemaking?

http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&p=123343#p123343

Brazil-
VDT has blown past the final tallies of the first two, with $14,227,457. I had previously posted that it past it, but that was by less than a million. The difference now is $6M.

Bulgaria-
It had previously passed PC, but it has now also passed LWW's final gross.

Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Philippines*-
VDT has passed PC. LWW's numbers are available for these countries on BOM.
* It had happened previously, unsure if I mentioned it.

France and co, Sweden-
VDT has finally passed PC, but still trails LWW.

Hong Kong-
VDT had a slight raise in earnings, but it was enough to put it past PC's final numbers. Although it still is behind LWW.

United Arab Emirates-
Has just slightly passed the totals for the first two installments, LWW and PC.

United Kingdom and Ireland and Malta-
It has been reported that in local currency VDT has passed PC's final totals. Thankfully. In US currency it is still slightly short of it. Not sure how important this is to the company.

EDIT

Tuesday's numbers have been posted on BOM. Narnia went up by 18.9% to $325,975, for a domestic total of $95,132,385.

So what was VDT's total budget including marketing and everything else involved in moviemaking?

$255 million. ($155 million production cost + $100 million marketing cost). If there are any other costs involved, I don't think we need to worry about them.

Because Domestic Gross seems to be just as important as worldwide gross, here is a chart ranking VDT's progress:

$70.1 million (The Golden Compass domestic gross) -The Anti-Narnia film. Also a domestic flop of a film.

$75.0 million (Eragon domestic gross) -Fox's first attempt at launching a fantasy series. A flop.

$82.9 million (Charlotte's Web domestic gross) -Walden's 4th highest grossing film domestically until Dawn Treader beat it.

$88.7 million (Percy Jackson and the Olympians domestic gross) -Fox's new fantasy franchise from earlier this year. Also was Fox's #2 movie in 2010 until Dawn Treader beat it.

$93.0 million (60% of Dawn Treader's production budget) -According to Aravis Narnia, this is the number VDT needed to beat domestically in order to ensure that it cannot be considered a flop. http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&start=624

$95.1 million (Dawn Treader's current domestic gross) -so far, so good.

$96.1 million (62% of Dawn Treader's production budget) -PC only made 62% of its production budget during its entire run. A good number to beat to help ensure SC.

$98.7 million (Date Night's domestic gross) -If VDT crosses this threshold, it will be Fox's top grossing film domestically of 2010.

$100 million (Dawn Treader becomes Fox's first $100 million film since Avatar) -quite a landmark.

$101 million (Journey to the Center of the Earth domestic gross) -Beating this number would make VDT Walden's third highest grossing film, after LWW & PC respectively. Probable greenlight for SC from Walden at this point.

$131 million (The Last Airbender's domestic gross) -Before December, we predicted that VDT would do better than this film.

$141 million (PC's domestic gross) -Possible greenlight for SC from Fox.

$291 million (LWW's domestic gross) -Automatic greenlight for SC.

$334 million (Alice in Wonderland's domestic gross) -The top fantasy movie of 2010.

From looking at the data, I'd say that within the next couple of weeks, we're going to have a hit on our hands. Anyone want to take bets on whether or not Dawn Treader beats Journey to the Center of the Earth by this time next week?

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader eased 12 percent to $17.8 million from 69 markets. Its only major opening came in China, where its $5.1 million start was a notable improvement over Prince Caspian's $3.9 million. With a $242.9 million overseas total and its Japanese debut yet to come, Prince Caspian's $278 million final total seems well within Dawn Treader's grasp.

This was in BOM's latest international totals top story which also said that VDT is getting nearer to a milestone in the series. Sounds pretty encouraging.

This was in BOM's latest international totals top story which also said that VDT is getting nearer to a milestone in the series. Sounds pretty encouraging.

The milestone is basically passing up PC's international numbers. I got excited when I read that too, only to realize it was something we already knew.

Yes, but coming from a website that kept labeling VDT as floundered, sunk or crashing, this is a nice change of tone. Haha.

Yes, I don't know many other websites that hate Narnia more than the folks over at BOM (especially whoever it is who posts the articles). So considering that someone who is quite biased against the films said something good about it, is always nice.