Two reasons for GC's poor performance locally and good performance overseas include the disapproval of churches to the anti-church themes of the whole His dark materials trilogy, which would be particularly noticeable in USA and of less consequence elsewhere.

Yes I was told not to get the books to give to my non-existent grandchildren for Christmas and yes, I was told not to take them to see the movie, so I went out of my way to see for myself exactly what was wrong with them. I would have done this on principle even if I did have grandchildren.

Another reason for the popularity of GC in Australia would be due to the sympathy felt for Nicole Kidman, a popular big name Australian actress who many felt had been shabbily treated by Tom Cruise and who played the villainous Mrs Coulter in the story.

On the other hand, I don't necessarily see the church rushing out to endorse VDT either here or in USA.

Some people are concerned because of The Golden Compass making so much globally but not being greenlit.

However, they are two very different situations. The Golden Compass MAY have made 372M globally- BUT only 70M of that was from the USA and Canada. It only made 70M domestically in two whole months.

VDT has already made 90M and counting. So it has made at least 20 more million dollars domestically in less than a month.

The Golden Compass made only around 40% profit domestically and thus it is an official box office bomb. Had it made over 55% but not quite 60%, I think the studio may have considered giving a sequel a chance. But 40% is way too low.

On the other hand, VDT will no doubt hit 93M this weekend. 93M is what VDT needs to be at 60%. If a movie makes at least 60% profit domestically, it cannot be considered a flop. VDT is still running. It is likely to make at least 100M, which would be close to 65% profit.

Finally, GC had a much higher budget while not making as big a profit in proportion and in net dollars. VDT is being much more successful in net dollars and in proportional profit.

In conclusion, the numbers for VDT look much better than those of GC. So it is highly likelier that VDT's numbers will be good enough to guarantee the greenlighting of SC.

In the meantime, go watch VDT again!

I agree with what you are saying about TGC. In addition there are 2 other major reasons for TGC being dropped. First it was the start of a franchise. Narnia started very strong. Then when down, but still showed the potential for profit. TGC started so slow that it could never afford another drop. The second reason is that they sold off the international rights after the domestic opening. Unwisely i might add, as it turned out to do very well over seas. Thus the loss they took on the movie was even higher based on that bad decision.

This weekend is projected to be way below my expectations, but somehow, I don't really care. All that matters now it $100M and doing well overseas.

well. Narnia made $4.7M over the weekend. It fell 6 slots from last weekend and is off the Top 10 at the box office, #11. It has made a total of $94,681,000.

Friday numbers...$1,185,000
Total: $91,116,000
$100mill?
Its gonna be hard!!!

Why does everybody think that VDT is going to "barely" make it to $100 million. This week has an abnormally large drop, this is completely normal, it's the first week that has not had the holiday boost. VDT did not do poorly this week, it simply did well in the past couple of weeks, if that makes sense.

Saturday and Sunday estimates are in...$2,150,000 for Saturday, and $1,420,000. That would put it at $94,681,000 already.

VDT will blow right past $100 million. My very pessimistic predictions:

Monday: $280,000 (-80%)
Monday-Thursday: $1,000,000. TOTAL: $95,700,000.

Friday: $500,000 (+100%)
Saturday: $1,000,000 (+100%)
Sunday: $750,000 (-25%)
Weekend: $2,250,000 (-55%, very pessimistic for MLK weekend) TOTAL: $97,950,000.

Monday: $600,000 (-20% or so...it's MLK day)
Tuesday: $120,000 (-80%)
Monday-Thursday: $950,000. TOTAL: $98,900,000.

Friday: $310,000 (+150%)
Saturday: $620,000 (+100%)
Sunday: $310,000 (-50%)
Weekend: $1,240,000 (-45%) TOTAL: $100,140,000

Those predictions are based on me looking at the LWW drops and increases, and lopping off on average 25%. VDT still easily makes it to $100,000,000, with several million dollars left in the tank.

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader: $17.7 million from 5,085 screens in 39 markets gives the fantasy film an international haul of $242.5 million and a worldwide total of $337.2 million.
It opened top in China on $5.1m from 1,300 screens.

400 Million is very much possible. I think Domestic will reach 105 million.

As of this weekend, we have reached 93M. As in 60%. As in enough for VDT to NOT be considered a flop.

"plays and dances to Hava Nagila very joyfully"

"yes, with her Aslan plooshie"

400 Million is very much possible. I think Domestic will reach 105 million.

I think that that is reasonable. I was hoping for a better than average hold like True Grit's -38.6% but it was an OK post-holiday drop. Should definitely hang in there to get over $100 million.

I think they over did the number of 3D theaters with the higher prices. Maybe VDT will do above average at the discount theaters. We'll see in a few weeks...

As of this weekend, we have reached 93M. As in 60%. As in enough for VDT to NOT be considered a flop.

"plays and dances to Hava Nagila very joyfully"

"yes, with her Aslan plooshie"

Personally I don't think a 60% overseas number is as important as raw numbers. What if VDT had done $100 million in US/Canada but $400 million internationally ($500 million worldwide)? That would be an 80% international percentage but certainly not a flop - on the contrary a runaway success overall. Ideally I would like VDT to reach $400 million worldwide, regardless of how it does it.

Opening No. 1 in China, as per Fox, was The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which collected $17.7 million overall on the weekend from 6,605 sites in 69 markets, and finished No. 5 on the weekend. China opening number is $5.07 million drawn from some 1,300 locations. Narnia's overseas cume stands at $242.6 million.

That's really good in China, I'd say!

Corazon Bandido- I mean making 60% of the total cost in domestic profits. 60% of 155M is 93M. Which is what we have made domestically so far. Officially, a movie needs to make at least 60% profit domestically in order to not be considered a box office bombs. Some movies cough Waterworld cough may have made less than 60% domestically- but still made enough money worldwide to recover investment and even make a bit of a profit. Others, such as Cutthroat Island, did not make anywhere near enough globally overall period. This is what I mean.

So VDT can NOT be considered a flop. It has made over 60% domestically. Globally, it has made quite enough to recover production costs, marketing costs, and even make a profit. So it certainly cannot be considered a failure in any way.

Just for fun tonight, I found my post guessing at how much the studio gets out of the box office total. Here are my new figures....

Domestic Total = 94,681,000*75% = $71,010,750
Foreign Total = 213,334,774*40% = $85,333,910

Fox/Walden's Guesstimate Total = $156,344,660

So it looks like they may have at least broken even on the production budget, though not on the marketing budget.

Speaking of which, I don't know if anyone ever posted this yet or not, but TheNumbers.com cited the link where I believe the $100million marketing budget claim first surfaced. That would be here. So I believe that the $100million marketing figure is probably accurate.

I love that the film "broke even" and I'm depressed that we can't even make the marketing budget. I hope SC is green lit, upppppppps! I MEAN 'SILVER' LIT! LOL!!!!

So VDT can NOT be considered a flop. It has made over 60% domestically. Globally, it has made quite enough to recover production costs, marketing costs, and even make a profit. So it certainly cannot be considered a failure in any way.

Erm...no. Read F_K's post above. I doubt VDT will completely break even just on box office numbers alone, but it will probably come very close. DVD sales, merchandise and TV licensing are what will be making the profit.

Does that mean that we have to wait until after the U.S. DVD is released for any news of greenlighting? Because I don't think I can bear
the agonizing wait....