SO.... Im expecting Narnia to finish somewhere between 115 and 125million (probably closer to 120). my reasons... Narnia is now ahead of golden compass by aprox 30 million for the current date. 2nd Jan, and from now untill the end of GC's run it had made another 12mill, so with Narnia currently sitting on 87mill we can guarantee a 100mill haul, but with its pull ahead power we can prob expect atleast another 20mill domestic untill the end of its run, probably closer to 30 i would think, I mean there is nothing to say that its trend will continue, but the fact that it opened to less than GC, but has pulled ahead of it by 30million dollars in 24 days says to me that this baby has got legs and isnt finished running yet! As for international numbers, I urge you in other countries (not usa) like me to get out and see it again, and I know there are people you know who havnt yet seen the movie, so take them too... things are looking good for SC... I mean if FOX is considering a sequal to 'A-Team'... which was a flop in comparison...
Production: 110million
Domestic take: 77.2million
Foreign take: 99.8million

Than surely FOX has already Greenlit SILVER CHAIR, theyre just having fun watching us squirm in anticipation.

I'm not expecting any greenlighting announcements until after VDT makes over 310 worldwide. If it makes 350, then I'll be expecting. If it makes as much as PC, then I'll be more than expecting, I'll be anticipating...

Here's the list that I've come up with in my head:

155 million (cost of film) -absolute minimum the film can make or else it will be proclaimed a complete disaster.

249 million (Eragon worldwide take) -the number of a fantasy movie that was a complete flop. Definitely a number to beat to avoid comparisons.

261 million (Knight & Day worldwide take) -the number to beat to become Fox's highest grossing film of 2010.

273 million (Dawn Treader's current worldwide estimate)-good, but not great.

310 million (Our lowest reasonable estimate for SC greenlight) -estimated by accounting for marketing costs by doubling the production cost.

349 million (Our middling estimate for SC greenlight) -estimated by adding PC's profits to VDT's $155 million production cost.

372 million (The Golden Compass worldwide take) -a comparable fantasy movie that wasn't greenlit for a sequel.

400 million (Box Office Mojo's estimate for SC greenlight) -http://www.narniaweb.com/2010/12/how-will-dawn-treader-do-at-the-box-office/

419 million (Prince Caspian worldwide take) -pretty much an automatic greenlight if VDT makes it this far.

273 million (Dawn Treader's current worldwide estimate)-good, but not great.

I'd add another $20M to that. Internationally it's been reported to have gained a bit over that. Sites have reported it already, BOM is just late in the update.

155 million WOULD be a disaster! Fox would not make any money, even with DVD sales.

I would be quite disappointed if VDT could not manage to reach the Golden Compass. I think it will be difficult, but I'd say I'd say it is quite possible for it to reach 400 million. 419? Not so much, but 400 is doable. And I do think if it can reach that number then we will see a sequel.

Hello!

So sorry if someone has already made a post about this, but I couldn't find it specifically.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=d ... arnia3.htm

Has everyone noticed how Treader is picking up steam? Look at the chart. The first week it made an average of $1 million each week day. The second week $2 million each week day. Last week $3 million each week day! Then it made over $10 million this weekend! Now unless I'm ignorant, this isn't a normal trend for films ... or should I say, films that end up as flops. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I was depressed about Treader's weak opening, but now there appears to be hope!

Welcome to NarniaWeb, JordonShasta! Enjoy your time on the forums!

Now unless I'm ignorant, this isn't a normal trend for films ... or should I say, films that end up as flops. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

You're right, it isn't the normal trend for films, but it is fairly normal for films that are released during Christmas time.

You're right, it isn't the normal trend for films, but it is fairly normal for films that are released during Christmas time.

And if the word of mouth is good. I think VDT's performance was definitely helped by the holidays. Will be really interested in today's and each weekday's numbers this for this week.

Now comes the real test for its word of mouth: After the holidays. If it can hold steady and have lower than usual drops, I think $400 million worldwide will be within reach (and hence The Silver Chair).

Welcome to NarniaWeb, JordonShasta! Enjoy your time on the forums!

I agree. Good observations on those daily trends.

So what percentage of the money that they need (to greenlite SC) do they have yet?

Lu

Ok weekly graph update!

VDT is currently doing better than what PC was at this time, if this can continue after this week and into the next it should bode well. So long as the VDT line is above the PC line it should, hopefully and in theory, remain in theaters for longer.

All graphs chronicle VDT's numbers up til 1/2/11. The last chronicles LWW and PC's numbers until 1/2/05 and 6/9/08 respectively. Click to make larger.

Nobody will know whether there will be a sequel until an official announcement is made.

One thing people really need to do is to stop with the blind speculation. I've seen this over and over again among fans discussing franchises and whether or not there will be sequels. Calm yourselves, because this kind of thing is unknowable!

When something is a monster hit, then yes, the sequel is a safe bet.

But in literally ANY other situation, nobody but the people involved at the decisionmaking level have any clue whatsoever. Everything else is just Internetters throwing out wild guesses, even when it's people one might think of as being at the "in-the-know" level, like BoxOfficeMojo staff.

Every single movie and/or franchise is unique, and treated uniquely. The set of circumstances surrounding one is going to be totally different than the set of circumstances surrounding another.

Take (for example) The Fantastic Four. The original was no monster hit, but it got a quick sequel. The sequel, meanwhile, did $132M domestic, $157M foreign on a $130M budget (a margin between cost and profit which should be comparable to VDT's final numbers by the way, though VDT won't be as big domestically but much bigger internationally), and Fox is already planning to make another FF movie (a reboot, but another movie nonetheless).

Studios will plug away at mediocre-seeming franchises, even while abandoning others that showed solid returns. Again, every franchise is different, and with Narnia they will be considering factors that we aren't even aware of, let alone in a position to evaluate.

Bottom line: there is not a mathematical formula here. People can talk all day about "if it makes 'x' amount, they'll greenlight the next one, less than that, and they won't" or "they need this much to make a profit," or "it needs to do this well on DVD," but it just isn't ever that simple, no matter how much people try to make it so. The economics of all this are completely beyond anyone who does not work in the business.

For all we know, the powers-that-be have privately greenlit the Silver Chair already. (Or axed any possibility of it the second VDT's opening day numbers came in!)

You just have to let time take its course.

Hooray! New members abound! Welcome to NarniaWeb GrizzledFish! Have fun on the forums!

Nobody will know whether there will be a sequel until an official announcement is made.

One thing people really need to do is to stop with the blind speculation. I've seen this over and over again among fans discussing franchises and whether or not there will be sequels. Calm yourselves, because this kind of thing is unknowable!

... You just have to let time take its course.

This is true of course, but it shouldn't stop of us from making our guesses anyway. We might be frustrating ourselves in the process, but what harm is there in that? Whether than just sitting back and waiting, it makes good conversation to talk about it and make our own guesses on what will be the future of the series based on the numbers we've seen. It's all in good fun.

EDIT:
http://forum.narniaweb.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2331&p=123343#p123343

Some updates. In Russia and Ukraine, VDT further expanded its lead on PC and LWW. In South Korea it has officially passed PC's final gross, but still trails LWW. Updates aren't complete, waiting for BOM with the rest.

I wonder if Box Office Mojo intended the "stable mate" pun when referring to VDT.

From Box Office Mojo:

"It remained in eighth place and couldn't top its 20th Century Fox stable mate The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which drew $10.3 million in its fourth weekend. "

I cannot help but wonder if that was intentional. Especially given this time of the year- a major holiday that just passed. Hopefully it is a good sign. A good omen.

This is true of course, but it shouldn't stop of us from making our guesses anyway. We might be frustrating ourselves in the process, but what harm is there in that? Whether than just sitting back and waiting, it makes good conversation to talk about it and make our own guesses on what will be the future of the series based on the numbers we've seen. It's all in good fun.

I don't think there's any harm in it as long as we remember, like GrizzledFish said, that it really is blind speculation and we have no idea what the "real" number is for SC to be green lit, if such a number exists at all.

I don't think we should all convince ourselves, after our detailed analysis, that VDT must be doing well enough to justify a green light for SC, and then be devastated when the green light never comes.