http://www.deadline.com/2010/12/tron-legacy-3d-opens-to-3-5m-midnights-record-25-from-imax-theaters/

First Friday % drop/Weekend Drop %

Narnia fell 55% from last Friday, relative good news. by the end of the weekend that percentage should be smaller. The Golden Compass dropped 69.8%/65.8% and Eragon dropped 68.7%/69.9%, (for past movies that opened nearly the same weekend to similar results. LWW dropped 60%/51.4% while PC dropped 66.7%/58.6% on the first Friday/weeken, so it's better than both Narnia movies as well (at least for Friday, though it will most likely go for full weekend as well).

Eragon is a rare case where the Friday percentage drop translated to an even bigger percentage for the weekend. Most movies Friday's seem steeper but with Saturday boosts the weekend as a whole has a better hold, smaller percentage drop.

VDT's Friday gross was $3.7m for an estimated weekend of $12.8m. And I just read at BOM that the 3D market has grown so much that VDT didn't have to lose any of its 3D screens for Tron or Yogi, it was Tangled who had to shed its 3D screens. Very good news for Narnia.

BOM also had this to say:

If Dawn Treader can follow The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe's pattern from here, it will ultimately finish with just over $100 million, which is a far cry from Prince Caspian's $141.6 million.

First weekend, VDT seems it might hold better than LWW, hopefully it continues and crosses the $100M mark, even if it is smaller than PC- though we hope for more.

Wagga, I don't know about Tron being a rip-off of A Wrinkle in Time (personally I don't see the similarities). I see allusions to the New Testament and computer technology and sci-fi fiction of the time. There are lots of technical computer references and injokes within the movie (the original at least). I also don't believe Tron will be 'frightening'. It's not a horror movie, even a thriller. Maybe a sci-fi adventure.

We'll see how VDT goes. People who haven't read the book seem to enjoy it much more than those who've read the book. That doesn't bode well for us fans but it may not be so bad for everyone else.

Wasnt there a weekend where LWW didnt drop at all? If so, I hope VDT can somehow do that!

As for Yogi Bear, I must admit that before I knew that Narnia would be competing against it, I thought it looked pretty funny and wanted to go watch it - there, I said it. Here come the rotten tomatoes. But don't worry guys. I'm not going to watch it. In fact, I won't go watch any movie that's not Narnia until the franchise's fate is clear.

We'll see how VDT goes. People who haven't read the book seem to enjoy it much more than those who've read the book. That doesn't bode well for us fans but it may not be so bad for everyone else.

I have to disagree. Perhaps it is not as popular as the other Narnia films among those who frequently write on this board. But, if you look at the poll on the main page nearly half of Narniawebbers say the movie is "perfect". And the average review has an 8.15 rating. That is certainly better than IMDB's 6.8 user rating. I'd venture to say the movie is even MORE popular among book fans. But I think it is being received fairly well from the general population as well. It still has an A- on Yahoo, so that means its word of mouth can't be too bad.

Friday estimates are in! From BoxOfficeMojo...

Movie: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Distributor: Fox
Estimate: $3,550,000
Change from Thursday: +126%
Change from last Friday: -57%
Theater count: 3,555
Theater average: $999
Cumulative total: $33,914,000
Estimated weekend: $12,800,000
Change from last weekend: -46.6%
Day: 8

Now for the comparisons:

LWW decreased by 51.4% on it's second weekend, more than VDT's estimated 46.6%. Prince Caspian decreased by 58.6%. The Golden Compass decreased by 65.8%.

VDT's second weekend looks like it will be about the same as Prince Caspian's third weekend, and a little bigger than LWW's sixth weekend.

If VDT has drops consistent with LWW, here's how the following weeks will look:
Week 3: $7,950,000 -37.9%
Week 4: $10,330,000 +29.9%
Week 5: $6,290,000 -39.1%
Week 6: $4,040,000 -35.7%
Week 7: $2,510,000 -38.0%
Week 8: $1,810,000 -27.8%

So that means its drop from weekend to weekend would be around 48%. Let's compare that to some other films.

LWW second weekend drop was 51.4%
The Golden Compass - 65.8%
Eragon - 69.9%

And even though circumstances were different with PC, being a Summer film, it's second weekend drop was 58%.

So all things considered, it looks like it will do quite well this weekend. Not amazing, but good.

It will be interesting to see if VDT can keep up with LWW's drops. On its third weekend LWW only dropped. 0.5%. It would be amazing if VDT could do that!

So that means its drop from weekend to weekend would be around 48%. Let's compare that to some other films.

Haha, we did the same thing. I posted the numbers quickly and then edited my post to fill in with more stats.

It will be interesting to see if VDT can keep up with LWW's drops. On its third weekend LWW only dropped. 0.5%. It would be amazing if VDT could do that!

That's, of course, if you count it as a 4-day weekend.

If VDT follows LWW's drops, it would gross about $100 million when all is said and done. That seems very possible, since VDT has been doing better than LWW in terms of drops. The question now is, would $100 million domestically be enough to encourage Fox to make SC?

Haha, we did the same thing. I posted the numbers quickly and then edited my post to fill in with more stats.

LOL!

I'd forgotten that LWW's third weekend was a four day weekend. I wasn't going to say it, but I was thinking, "boy that's going to be REALLY hard for VDT to pull off"! Now that it is a four day weekend, that makes things a bit more manageable.

Really, VDT have been pretty good so far. Despite opening far below expectations, it hasn't fallen like a rock like TGC and Eragon did.

How much the studio has to make to move on with the franchise is a mystery to me. Some people on boxofficemojo said that studios get around 30% from oversea markets, and 50% from the US. market. So if this is true, then if they made over 300 million overseas and around 100 in the US it would just barely make back its 150 million production budget.

However I've also heard that the ratio of studio earnings from oversea markets is greater than 30%. Hopefully this is true.

So if this is true, then if they made over 300 million overseas and around 100 in the US it would just barely make back its 150 million production budget.

The commercial value of a film such as VDT is much more than just it's box office gross though, right? Fox can make money off of DVD & Blu Ray sales, and other movie-tie-in products and trinkets.

Not only that, but I doubt the official releases tell the whole story of a film's success. At church they are talking about waiting until VDT is released at a local speciality theatre which screens films after they have finished in the main cinemas. That will not be until January or February.

Not only that, but Foxtel is one of the main distributors of cable television in Australia. We won't just see VDT in the movies, those who subscribe to pay TV will be able to watch it from time to time on pay TV.

As a matter of interest, last weekend VDT earned exactly the same amount as did Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, and both suffered significantly because of the introduction of the much hyped Megamind which had twice the amount of their earnings. This is the sort of animated film that is usually offered under the PG banner for children's viewing.

well I just saw Tron Legacy this afternoon (at about the same time I saw VDT the previous week). The theater was a lot more filled than it was for Narnia.

I believe Narnia dropped from first to fourth domestically on Fri

I've been tracking it on excel and compared it with the first two, it's much lower, but it's been steadier so far.

Out of curiosity, what is the figure that Fox and Walden would need for it to gross in order to greenlight SC? Sorry if this has been discussed before, I don't feel like going through loads of pages to find the info if it was talked about before. I don't really keep up with these sorts of things as a matter of habit.

Out of curiosity, what is the figure that Fox and Walden would need for it to gross in order to greenlight SC?

Lol, we were just discussing this near the top of this page. It's fine though.

The honest answer is that nobody knows. The figure is probably around $400 million...since Disney said they made a profit off of PC through DVD sales and PC grossed $419 million and had a much higher budget than VDT.

Thanks for understanding. I relooked at the first few pages. I guess I'll have to wait with everyone else.