A worldwide gross of $400 million would probably be enough to get The Silver Chair into production. I'll bet $400 million is Fox/Walden's box office "floor," and that they'd like the gross higher.

If DVD sales are strong, it would increase the chances even more.

It's an impossible question to answer without knowing, exactly, what the final budget is. We only have vague estimates so far. Gross is only important as a component of profitability.

Welcome Veritas, and good question.
I'm no movie business woman, but I'd say $200million in solid profit would be enough to greenlight the next film.

We only have vague estimates so far.

Is $140-150million vague? Cause that's how much the budget is. Course I can't tell you how much Fox is pitching in for advertising.

Gross is only important as a component of profitability.

Very true - a point that is always worth remembering. Hence why in 2008, Twilight was considered a smash hit at $383m worldwide, whilst Prince Caspian was considered something of a flop at $419m worldwide.

However, i would have to say that in many ways, regardless of the budget and associated marketing costs for Dawn Treader, anything less than PC's $419million is going to look very very bad. Suddenly then you are looking at a three film downward trend, and it would probably take a fair bit to convince the studio that the sequence is going to turn around at the fourth attempt.

regardless of the budget and associated marketing costs for Dawn Treader, anything less than PC's $419million is going to look very very bad.

Oh, I agree with you completely there. But I really think it will do better than PC. But on the flip side of that, I doubt it will do as well as LWW. If I were to guess, I'd guess it will make something in the $600m range.

Is $140-150million vague? Cause that's how much the budget is. Course I can't tell you how much Fox is pitching in for advertising.

Yes, I've seen that range posted here countless times, and every time I ask for a source, I get the equivalent of crickets chirping. So, in that sense, it's completely vague to me. But, I'm not "in the know". Have Walden or FOX issued a statement to that effect? I'm not disputing it, I'm just saying I've yet to learn the origin of these numbers. If you can provide a source confirming this, I would be grateful.

Regardless, production budgets can often vary wildly from final costs, which is where I was going.

I would agree with the assessment that the film will gross more than Caspian and less than Wardrobe. One thing FOX needs to address is the relatively poor domestic take of Caspian. It had great foreign numbers, but the margin on foreign box office is a fraction of the take that studios rake in from domestic ticket sales. THAT'S where the film will sink or swim, ultimately.

Yeah, there was an official source, though naturally I can't remember where off the top of my head. Let me go digging for you and I'll post it here when I find it.

EDIT:

Here's the $140 million source

Here's the $150 million source

Those are the two I pulled up right away, I know there are more, but hopefully that'll be official enough for ya

Rule of thumb on advertising budgets for movies according to my college classes is 1/2 of what the budget is. So if a movie budget is $140 million, the advertising budget would be projected to be around $70 million. I don't know if that is overall or just domestic. Also, I know it isn't completely accurate as it is a rule of thumb.

I would even venture to say that unless the film makes anything near what LWW made it will not look good. I mean FOX needs this to be big. I'm not expecting anything over 800 million world-wide, but being that this is a more popular book than PC and it might do better. The marketing campaign for FOX and Walden need to be much better than that of Disney’s.

I mean the movie 2012 was being marketed almost 7 months prior to its release and it still has not come out yet. If Voyage makes less than 450million world wide I do not like the chances of the Silver Chair being green light.

I hate to say it but they may need some of the other characters like the Magician, and Ramandu's daughter to be played by bigger names than they have done. The bigger the names the more popularity you will get. Even the Lord of the Rings had some big names, Hugo Weaving, Cate Blanchett, Bernard Hill, Sean Bean, Elijah Woods, Sean Astons etc.... All fairly big names but not to big of names.

The other factor is how good the film will be in the end. The teasers and posters and the trailers that will come out next year will tell.

The thing I do like is a December release. Its the holidays, its Christmas, New Years, everyone will be in a spending/giving mood, so that will also play into Fox's hands.

So much depends on the box office, but they need to start promoting it now. Even a couple web-teasers and photo stills will be helpful.

Well that’s all for now, God Bless and....

To Narnia and the North!!!!!!!

I hate to say it but they may need some of the other characters ... to be played by bigger names than they have done.

I really don't agree with this at all. To use your example of LotR, hardly any of those actors were common household names until AFTER the movies came out. And just take a look at LWW... the kids were complete unknowns, and outside of England, hardly any of those actors were famous... Tilda Swinton, never heard of her. James McAvoy, heard of him, never seen him. The beavers voices, never heard of them. Liam Neeson was really the only big named actor in that film, and he was only a voice.

No, I actually believe one of the strongest things the Narnia series has going for it is that they use unheard of actors in these movies.

Sure, having a famous person be in the movies might pull some extra publicity early on, but there are hundreds of examples about some famous person's movie bombing at the box office.

So much depends on the box office, but they need to start promoting it now.

You don't think a gigantic ship on the coast of Australia that was open to the public was publicity enough?

No, in all seriousness, there is a very real danger in building hype in a movie too early. Because you always have to top the previous picture/trailer or interest falls away.

And that's precisely one of thing things that I feel went very wrong with Prince Caspian. We had trailers, web blogs, pictures, and then all of a sudden, nothing. And then we got bombarded with TV spots just a couple weeks before the movie came out. The hype for the film was all wrong. Cause it went from excitement, to forgotten, to completely overwhelming.

I think people forget that after all those super cool set pics we've gotten, we're still super early in the production. I don't expect to see much of anything until Christmas coming up here in a few months, and then not much again until the big summer hits next year.

I stand corrected concerning the Lord of the Rings. However Elijah Woods, Christopher Lee, Sean Bean, Cate Blanchett and Liv Tyler were house hold names, and the characters that they played needed the house hold names.

I see the point about the actors in LWW, you are correct none of them were known that well. But they were not the reason the film did well in the box office, the book itself was the reason. And not to mention the LWW came out just only two years after the Return of the King came out. In fact I can remember when LWW was green-lit.

Now, as far as the publicity is concerned, I know that it's still way to early yet. I used to make those some claims about PC when I was huntisnarnia here two years ago.

But, still I think that by next spring they need to start rolling out the posters and net-teasers at least. And even now just some photo stills like what we have been getting is good enough. But by July they need to start having movie trailers.

I must say that this year was the year of the movie, and now I see what films are on track to be released next year, it will be interesting to see how VDT does against some of them.

I felt that PC was a much better movie than people gave it credit for. I loved just about everything in it. There are a few things that concerned me but for the most part it was a good movie, period.

Now, we really do not know how the film itself will turn out. I was not aware about the ship being allowed to be seen in Austrailia. So please forgive me for not knowing that. It's been awhile since I have been on this web-site.

Well that’s all for now,

To Narnia and the North!!!!!!!

But, still I think that by next spring they need to start rolling out the posters and net-teasers at least. And even now just some photo stills like what we have been getting is good enough. But by July they need to start having movie trailers.

Oh yeah, I agree with that 100%. I suspect we'll have a teaser trailer by May/June of next year to be released with the big summer movies.

I was not aware about the ship being allowed to be seen in Austrailia. So please forgive me for not knowing that. It's been awhile since I have been on this web-site.

Go check out our image gallery here. I think you'll like what you see.

Wow, those pictures were amazing.

Now, my only problem is this. It’s been forever and a day since I last read the Voyage book, but the only non-human Narnians that I remember on-board the ship was Reepicheep. Whets up with all of these Dwarfs and Fauns and the other creatures?

Well the gallery looks great,

To Narnia and the North

You're remembering correctly. However, as this is veering waaaay offtopic, I'll point you in the direction of this thread here, and lets get back to discussing VDT box office numbers.