Now about Tangled not being a threat to Narnia:
It's true that Tangled releases on the 12th of Nov, and that seems like well before Narnia- BUT we need to remember it's set for a limited release. The Princess and the Frog spent 2 weeks in very limited release before entering wide release on its third week. If this be the case with Tangled, then it's as if it "releases" on the 24th, which is a week after Potter and a week before Narnia....In the end I'm not expecting it to be much of a threat either, but I am leaving the option there- I won't shut it out entirely.

I made that post several weeks ago, and it seems I was right about Nov 24. According to Box Office Mojo Tangled will no longer have a limited release of the 12th. It will now open on the 24th, wide release.

I saw the Preview for Tangled and it looks ridiculous. It's trailer is worse than VDT's so I'm not all that worried about it.

One thing that is in VDT's favor, no matter what the competition may be, is that it should open big enough so that the word of mouth can sustain it through the holidays.

Prince Caspian opened with $55 million in the USA during its opening weekend and that was considered a disappointment. Even if VDT were to open less than that, if the word of mouth is good, VDT's staying power will be greater and that is what matters most in the long run.

I think VDT will have enough support to do well if the movie itself is worthy. It may be affected temporarily by some big opening weekend by another flick, but if people really like it it will weather these influences and do well enough to make The Silver Chair.

Unless VDT is a total disaster at the box office right away, we should know its fate with absolute certainty at 4 weeks after its release. That will include the holidays here in the USA and a week afterward. That's more than enough time with these modern wide releases to predict a relatively accurate trend or outcome.

The thing that hurt Prince Caspian wasn't a lack of popularity, it was a lack of profitability. It actually made some $30 million dollars more than the first Twilight movie did, but the relative profit margins on each production proved to be the difference in terms of where each respective series ended up.

So given now that they have reduced the budget and upped the ticket prices (thank you 3D!), Voyage of the Dawn Treader could probably afford to see a downturn in overall popularity but still ensure an increase in profitability over Prince Caspian

So given now that they have reduced the budget and upped the ticket prices (thank you 3D!), Voyage of the Dawn Treader could probably afford to see a downturn in overall popularity but still ensure an increase in profitability over Prince Caspian

Good point, icarus. But I still would like to see VDT do better at the box office than PC. An upswing in tickets sold would be a big boost for the series. It is nice to know that VDT doesn't have to perform as well; but it would be even nicer (and more profitable) if it did.

Yes, word of mouth might ultimately be more important than a bombastic opening weekend. Look at 'How To Train Your Dragon'.. it opened to a lukewarm $43 million opening weekend, but had some legs that carried it over $200 million domestically.

I updated my first post again to include The Tourist and other movies that have been locked in since I last updated.

Personally I think it's kind of funny seeing people freak out over The Fighter and The Tourist since I think that neither of those movies will scratch Dawn Treader's box office numbers. (Wrong genres, wrong crowds) Tron: Legacy is still the biggest threat and getting loads of hype.

Tron: Legacy is still the biggest threat and getting loads of hype.

True. But still, I think VDT is a lot better off than PC was, sandwiched between Iron Man and Indiana Jones. Like you said, the other movies opening on December 10th are for a completely different audience, and there isn't anything the week before that could compete (so far). Harry Potter and Tangled will have lost their steam by the time VDT is released.

As far as Tron goes, I think VDT can hold its own, as long as FOX amps up the advertising. Since Tangled and Tron are both Disney movies releasing within a month of each other, I can see Disney trying to cram as many featurettes on Disney Channel as possible. If they're busy promoting Tangled up until it's release, does that mean there'll be less time to promote Tron? Or will they skimp on the Tangled advertising for the sake of Tron? Who knows.

So I stumbled across this article today on Tron: Legacy. The article itself I couldn't care less about, but an opening line caught me completely offguard.

http://www.film.com/features/story/pros ... y/40898843

Oh, I know Gulliver's Travels will probably make a boatload of money, and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will make a brave show of it.

Say what? Really? Gulliver's Travels doing better than Dawn Treader? I thought it looked terrible myself.

Yeah, FK, I've not really talked to anybody who thinks Gulliver's Travels looks good. It worries me a bit that they don't think VDT can do better than that.

I keep hearing more and more about Tron, and it's really beginning to worry me. It's certainly going to steal a lot of VDT's steam. Hopefully VDT will have longer legs though.

I'll always be a,
NL101

Well, here's one person who only knew Tron even existed because of Narniaweb. I have not seen any ads for it, but I have seen VDT ads, although I only saw those because I was looking for them.

I'm not going to be concerned at all about Gulliver's Travels until a better trailer comes out. Right now I don't think that film will make half of what VDT will make. I see 100 million max.

I think TRON will be a moderate hit, and make somewhere around 250 million, similar to what Star Trek made last year.

There is definitely room from both TRON and Narnia. They don't reach identical demographics, so that's good. The worst part about TRON coming out right after Narnia is that it will take away most of its 3D screens.

Regardless of personal opinion about the respective quality of either movie, i can't see how anyone, even someone with only a vague grasp of the movie industry, could possibly believe that Gulliver's Travels would make more money than Voyage of the Dawn Treader.

One only has to cast a quick glance over the boxoffice takings for other similarly styled Jack Black comedy vehicles to get a good idea of what sort of boxoffice to expect from Gulliver's Travels.

Typical Jack Black comedy movies like School of Rock, Shallow Hal, Tenacious D, Year One, etc etc - you are usually looking at boxoffice takings of less than 150m worldwide. To think anything different would happen with Gulliver's Travels would have to be sheer lunacy.

I'm with you on that, icarus.

As for Tron Legacy: I think we'll be fine. VDT doesn't need to hang onto the #1 spot to make money - it just needs to have legs and stay in that Top 5 for awhile. There will be plenty of audiences coming to both films.

VDT doesn't need to hang onto the #1 spot to make money - it just needs to have legs and stay in that Top 5 for awhile.

Good point, equustel. Staying power is what mattters most in the long run. I think VDT will hold its own as did LWW during this same period of time 5 years ago.
(That long ago? )

I think that some of these writers who predict box office performance would be in the poor house if their pay were tied to making consistently accurate predictions.