pretty please with sugar on top

if not May then please in June!

Harry Potter might be a bigger problem than any of us think... not a huge threat but will devour some of VDT's audience. Harry Potter's last movie had a $78 million opening, and then subsequent 50% drops (on average) thoughout its box office run. With HP coming out in 3D and it being the last HP movie (part 1 anyways) lets guesstimate that it will open to a bombastic $150 million opening weekend (same as Twilight). Weekend #2 would have it down to $75 million. Weekend #3 would drop it to $37.5 million. So by the time VDT comes out (Weekend #4), HP will be grossing around $20 million in the weekend box office still.

Narnia will need to have positive enough word of mouth to drop 50-55% or less per weekend to stay successful.

I think we'll all have a better feel for Narnia's competition when we start seeing trailers for all these movies. I know there is one for Tron 2 but I haven't seen one for Harry Potter yet, which is the only children's book series to ever beat Narnia to date, which in my opinion makes the movies always an opposition to each other.
Of course there is no competition in my mind, Narnia on it's worst day is way better than Hogwarts on it's best day.

Bumping this thread as I've updated my first post.

Many are saying that Tron: Legacy is not competition because it is directed to an older audience, but I beg to differ. I asked the small children in my family from niece's to nephew's, little sisters to little brothers, what movie they would prefer to see. About 78% said Tron and and only two little girls said VDT because liked Lucy's hair in the last one. I was somewhat astonished by this so I asked around my neighborhood and found that the results were better, but many kids know what Tron is and want to see it. In the world we live in today kids are seeing PG-13 movies all the time younger and younger, so even if Tron was rated this I doubt it would have an impact. For those who are heavy on ratings parents, I have a neighbor who in fact took their child to see Prince Caspian and was disturbed by the beheading of a soldier in the end and no longer trusts Narnia, this might be a little drastic, but still I really think were not looking into Tron enough.

I have a neighbor who in fact took their child to see Prince Caspian and was disturbed by the beheading of a soldier in the end and no longer trusts Narnia

Too bad a beheading was also in the book! You'd think a parent would be able to go online and look at review to see what's in the film before they take their child! Besides, the beheading was so brief...blink and you'd miss it.

Even so, I still have a feeling Fox/Walden will play up the lightheartedness of VDT in the trailers to persuade those parents to bring their children back to the series.

The success of VDT is still up in the air right now. There isn't any momentum built up from advertising, or very little, so it's hard to make a judgment call right now. But as others have said, Harry Potter and Tron will put up a fight, but I don't think VDT will have any trouble taking up that challenge.

Doesn't Harry Potter and Tron Legacy come out weeks before VDT? I might be wrong about Tron Legacy. but yes i can see VDT in competition with Tron. It scares me too because more people prefers that movie over Narnia.

Doesn't Harry Potter and Tron Legacy come out weeks before VDT?

Potter will be entering its 3rd week when Narnia comes around. Tron Legacy releases the week after Narnia. I plan on seeing all 3.

Now about Tangled not being a threat to Narnia:
It's true that Tangled releases on the 12th of Nov, and that seems like well before Narnia- BUT we need to remember it's set for a limited release. Just HOW limited isn't clear at the moment, and how long it'll be in limited release is also unclear. The Princess and the Frog spent 2 weeks in very limited release before entering wide release on its third week. If this be the case with Tangled, then it's as if it "releases" on the 24th, which is a week after Potter and a week before Narnia. (Of course I'm only guessing with Disney's plans on bringing the movie from limited to wide). In the end I'm not expecting it to be much of a threat either, but I am leaving the option there- I won't shut it out entirely.

So Gulliver's Travels could have potentially been a threat to Dawn Treader, but based on this trailer I'd say the boat is safe. The movie looks like an absolute disaster. I hope they didn't spend much on it.

Yeah, I don't think that movie is any threat. Looks mind-bogglingly stupid. Typical Hollywood tactic, take a book of scathing social satire and turn it into a mindless "comedy".

According to this article this thing has a 160 million dollar budget!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 026235.ece

And it is going to be released two weeks after Narnia

^^ uh-oh.....that can't be good! I hope it doesn't mess up VotDT
but at least VotDT comes out before it so that's good, right?

The amount of money spent of a film has little or nothing to do with how well that movie will do in theaters. I really don't think this is anything to worry about; VDT would have to be a REALLY poor movie for it to be threatened by that.

Tron is easily my biggest concern right now.

I'll always be a,
NL101

^^ really? that's good. and VotDT's head start will most likely help!
what's Tron?

160 million on that? They'll be lucky if they make it all back. Not worried about it hurting VDT.