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[Closed] Dawn Treader Competition

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fantasia
(@fantasia)
Member Admin

Last month I did a story on the competition for Dawn Treader which can be seen here. A few days ago, AslansCountry.com reported that the Rapunzel release date had moved again from Nov 24 to Nov 12, so now there's no way that movie will affect Dawn Treader box office profit.

However, I stumbled across an article today that made me feel somewhat ill (about as ill as a movie can).

From CNN.com: "Blockbuster bonanza: 25 big movies to look out for in 2010"
'Avatar Part Two'
Starring: Sam Worthington
The Scoop: The next chapter of James Cameron's 3-D special effects bonanza is slated for 2010 (no release date as yet), but at this point the only character that's sure to return is Jake Sully (Worthington).
Genre: Action/Fantasy

Say what?!?!?!? Avatar 2 is coming out in 2010? Personally I don't see any way that movie could make it out in 2010 unless they're already well into production on it. (I haven't followed this movie. Maybe they are.) IF they do manage to get this movie out sometime in 2010, it'd have to be December. And I think we all know how well the current Avatar is doing. This movie could potentially put a serious dent in Dawn Treader's box office intake.

I'm hoping and praying that Avatar 2 is pushed back to 2011.....

ETA: This piece of article has since been removed from CNN's story. It is no longer viable. Feel free to continue discussion on other movies that VDT will be competing with.

EDIT 12 Feb 2010: I thought I should list the movies and their ever-changing release dates (ok, ok, so it's just Rapunzel.. I mean Tangled 8-| ) for convenience, so here they are. (As a side note, I'm not sure the release date info on Tangled is correct. I'll fix it once I find out for sure what's going on with that)

EDIT 27 Apr 2010: Removed The Green Hornet from the list as it's been postponed to a later date that doesn't affect VDT.

EDIT 3 June 2010: Updated the list to include all wide releases in November and December and include IMDb links. (Cept one I didn't feel was appropriate to mention on this site that won't affect VDT at all)

EDIT 10 June 2010: Updated to include The Fighter

EDIT 18 Aug 2010: Updated to include The Tourist and other movies.

November 5
Megamind
Due Date

November 12
Unstoppable
Morning Glory
Tangled (limited release)

November 19
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
The Next Three Days

November 24
Burlesque
Red Dawn
Faster

November 26
Tangled (wide release) *NOTE* Some sites say it's gonna be released on the 24th and other sites say the 26th. Either way, it's Thanksgiving weekend.

December 3
The Warrior's Way

December 10
The Fighter
The Tourist
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
The Tempest (limited)

December 17
TRON: Legacy
Yogi Bear
How Do You Know

December 22
Gulliver's Travels
Little Fockers

December 25
True Grit

December 31
Blue Valentine

Topic starter Posted : January 11, 2010 5:24 am
narnialover101
(@narnialover101)
NarniaWeb Nut

~x( If this is true I will officially be boycotting Avatar. But seriously, why is it that Narnia can't just be left alone? It almost feels like people are trying to make it do poorly, although I'm sure that's not the case. If this "Avatar Part Two" nonsense proves to be true, I think it would be best to push VDT to 2011. It just wouldn't be worth releasing at the same time as the part two to the (currently) second highest grossing movie of all time.

This is seriously frustrating.

I'll always be a,
NL101 :)


Rest in Peace Old Narniaweb
(2003-2009)

Posted : January 11, 2010 5:49 am
fantasia
(@fantasia)
Member Admin

I did some more research, and while Avatar 2 is definitely in the works, there is just no way it could possibly be released in 2010 without being a really shoddy piece of work. I did find that James Cameron has the story in his head (guess it's gonna be a trilogy) but he has NOT STARTED WRITING it yet. That's of Jan. 8.
I don't know where CNN got the 2010 release date from, but it's gotta be a mistake.

Topic starter Posted : January 11, 2010 6:00 am
narnialover101
(@narnialover101)
NarniaWeb Nut

I sincerely hope you're right. Voyage of the Dawn Treader has about the perfect release date; I'd hate for it to be ruined.

I'll always be a,
NL101 :)


Rest in Peace Old Narniaweb
(2003-2009)

Posted : January 11, 2010 6:04 am
bkey
 bkey
(@bkey)
NarniaWeb Nut

I'm not sure where CNN is getting their information. I don't think we will see an Avatar 2 until at least 2012. It took 4 and a half years from the time Avatar was pitched for it to be released, due largely to the time it took to render all of the special effects. Also, according to Cameron himself, although he does intend to make a sequel, he has yet to start on a script.

""Actually, when I pitched this to 20th Century Fox four-and-a-half years ago, I said, 'You know, we're going to spend a lot of money and time and energy creating not only a process but the assets, the CG assets, we call them ... huge, millions and millions of dollars. So it really makes sense to think of it as the potential start of a franchise, if you will, or a saga that plays out over several acts, each movie being an act of that saga. And I have it mapped out, but I haven't written the scripts yet.
http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=61585

The director also told MTV that it takes up to almost a year to create the Na'vi, since the effects team has to essentially recreate the actors' faces and body movements in CGI:
"Part of what we set out to do is create a world and create these characters. From the time we capture and finish the capture, it’s literally nine to 10 months to get the CG characters working, to get their facial musculature working. … So now we have Jake, we have Neytiri. Sam can step right back into it, the characters will fit them like a glove, and we’ll just go on. So a lot of the start-up torque that had to be done for one movie really makes more sense if you play it out across several films."
http://www.mtv.com/movies/news/articles ... tory.jhtml

Cameron also has several other projects he is considering, which he may decide to direct before returning to the world of Avatar, including another 3D epic titled Battle Angel, and a film called The Last Train to Hiroshima, based on the bombing of Hiroshima during WWII.

Finally, as most of you are aware, it takes several months to even shoot a film of this proportion, and the scriptwriting process can take up a good amount of time as well. With all of this in mind, it is virtually impossible for Avatar 2 to see the light of day this year.

Posted : January 11, 2010 6:12 am
ceppault
(@ceppault)
NarniaWeb Junkie

Very good explanations that it is not something we should fret about. :-bd

I wont forget the positive buzz surrounding Peter Jackson's version of King Kong in December 2005. Great director. Great movie idea. Great talent. All great things going for it to snag away box office attention from LWW. Yet it was a bit of a dud. It happens.

Overall, I am more concerned about VDT being a dud than any of the competition over the Christmas season of 2010.

“Safe?” said Mr. Beaver; “don’t you hear what Mrs. Beaver tells you? Who said anything about safe? ‘Course he isn’t safe. But he’s good. He’s the King, I tell you.”

Posted : January 11, 2010 7:17 am
narnia365
(@narnia365)
NarniaWeb Regular

Yes, good explanations. And besides, 2010 can't be right anyways. If they did finish Avatar 2 that fast, it would be terrible (which would therefore ruin Avatar, and they wouldn't make as much money, so they wouldn't do that). So, I think it almost a guarantee that it will be pushed back. 2012 sounds about right.

"We have to travel to another dimension to rescue his father."
"That is so Narnia! Can I come?"
-Beyond the Reflections Edge, by Bryan Davis

Posted : January 11, 2010 7:41 am
Liberty Hoffman
(@liberty-hoffman)
NarniaWeb Master

if Avatar 2 comes out and ruins VotDT, I will be SO mad! X(

I agree with narnia365 about the fact that if Avatar 2 comes out that quickly after the first one, it would be horrible! and Avatar 1 is still in theaters! :-o X( :-s

oh well..... :)


NW sister - wild rose ~ NW big sis - ramagut
Born in the water
Take quick to the trees
I want all that You are

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EADBC57vKfQ

Posted : January 11, 2010 8:43 am
spartan5
(@spartan5)
NarniaWeb Nut

You're all forgetting who distributed "Avatar" - Fox. They aren't likely to release two films at once and risk one eating into the other's business. And that's only if Avatar 2 would drop at the end of the year - which will not be the case.

Posted : January 11, 2010 12:23 pm
stargazer
(@stargazer)
Member Moderator

spartan5 makes a good point about Fox likely being unwilling to release two fantasy-type potential blockbusters too close to each other.

I poked around the links on the Avatar 2 entry on the Avatar wiki and found uncertainty about a possible release date, with 2011 mentioned as a prospect.

(It was noted that this movie could be produced much more quickly than the first one since so much of the ground-breaking technical work on sets, CGI, etc, is now complete. But given that Cameron has ideas in mind but the script isn't written yet, 2011 seems a more likely release date).

edit: another possibility comes to mind, from one of the comments to the article fantasia_kitty originally linked: the writer may be confused by the title similarity between Cameron's Avatar and The Last Airbender (the original series name was Avatar: The Last Airbender). That movie is currently set to release July 2 so it shouldn't be a concern for Narnia fans and VDT.

But all night, Aslan and the Moon gazed upon each other with joyful and unblinking eyes.

Posted : January 11, 2010 2:33 pm
Bookwyrm
(@bookwyrm)
NarniaWeb Guru

I think this is yet another case of people writing articles based on hearsay and sloppy research and editors totally unmotivated to make sure their reporters have their facts straight. Nothing to worry about.

Posted : January 11, 2010 9:30 pm
Liberty Hoffman
(@liberty-hoffman)
NarniaWeb Master

sloppy research is almost never correct.....yeah, this could all just be a rumor......I hope!


NW sister - wild rose ~ NW big sis - ramagut
Born in the water
Take quick to the trees
I want all that You are

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EADBC57vKfQ

Posted : January 13, 2010 9:52 am
IloveFauns
(@ilovefauns)
NarniaWeb Guru

They can't rash that avatar it won't make it will have to be at least march 2011 before it comes out.

Posted : January 14, 2010 11:06 pm
fantasia
(@fantasia)
Member Admin

I edited my original post as well, but CNN's article has completely removed that particular paragraph from their story. So, moving on to other movies to discuss. At this point in time, the only one that has me a little concerned is Tron: Legacy. The nice thing about this movie is that it's not at all in the same demographic as VDT (at least, it shouldn't be). I'll be curious to see in the future what other movies fill-in the week prior to VDT's release. At the moment, there's nothing.

Topic starter Posted : January 15, 2010 7:11 am
CorazonBandido55
(@corazonbandido55)
NarniaWeb Nut

I dont know about you guys but im actually more worried about Disney's Rapunzel..although I am relieved that it wont be debuting on Dec 25... now that would be horrible.

your fellow Telmarine

Posted : January 15, 2010 7:38 am
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