Last year, before it became clear that they were starting with The Magician's Nephew, there was a lot of debate on the forums about the identify of both of Greta Gerwig's two contracted Narnia films, and what a logical pairing of films looked like for that arrangement.
So, the question is, now that we know they are starting with Magician's Nephew, does it absolutely go without saying that the second film will me 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe'? I mean, every ounce of logic and common sense would say it has to be, right?
Well, in the interests of debate, I've not only added a poll on the matter with a couple of wildcard options, but i'm also going to offer up two plausible alternative hypotheses for books other than LWW....
1. The Horse and His Boy - Its the one book that can almost be done entirely as a standalone, so i think its worthy of consideration. I'm somewhat 50/50 on whether this book would appeal to GG or not. She has mentioned she enjoyed Horse books growing up as a child, and i can also see how certain thematic elements of the story might resonate with her.... however i have been wondering whether the seemingly greater abundance of real-world scenes in her MN adaptation might make her lean away from the one book that has none. Or perhaps that's all the more reason to do this one? Also, like MN, it also keeps things fresh as a brand new, never before filmed, adaptation.
2. The Last Battle - an absolutely controversial choice for sure, but if you had to put me on the spot, and offer up a movie in which you could plausibly bring back the two child leads from MN, it would The Last Battle. Simply switch Jill and Eustace out for Polly and Digory and the story can play out the same from there (more or less). You can even deal with whatever time jump you want by just having Digory and Polly revert to their childlike appearance via magic (which potentially happens at the very end of the book anyway? i forget). Obviously this would absolutely fly in the face of Richard Gelfond and his "8 Films" thing, but stranger things have happened on this production so far, so who knows..... plus i have always liked the juxtaposition of having the Creation and Death of Narnia as back-to-back stories in publication order.,.. and if they were intending to "break the arc" of the whole thing, and the films are simply going to be called "Narnia" anyway, perhaps its not as mad as it sounds to do MN and LB as a self-contained pair?
Anyway.... debate away... but its got to be LWW.... right?
Honestly, I think it has to be "The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" next (its the most well known and most popular book in the series).
However, I think it may be a better long term decision to do The Horse and His Boy first.
1. The Horse and His Boy has never been adapted to film (or television as far as I know), while The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe has been adapted In 1967, in 1979, in 1988 and in 2005 (as @icarus noted).
2. The Pevensies are basically the same age in The Horse and His Boy as they are at the end of The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (both Prince Caspian and The Horse and His Boy make reference to the Calormene ambassadors and the planting of the fruit trees at Cair Paravel - making it clear that is was only a short time after the events of The Horse and His Boy that the 4 Pevensies returned to our world). If they filmed The Horse and His Boy first, then the adult Pevensies could easily return for The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe and keep the continuity. (Against this, is movies generally like to match adult and kids to look like the same person - you would probably want to match the adults to kids that are good actors rather than the other way around).
3. Once you begin filming The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - given how long it takes to make a film and how long it takes for kids to grow up - you have basically committed yourself to beginning Prince Caspian straight after it as fast as you can (or else you skip making Prince Caspian) because the kids are meant to be only one year older in Prince Caspian. Then The Voyage of the Dawn Treader needs to be made quickly after Prince Caspian (due to the kids being only a year older than in the previous story). Of course The Silver Chair takes place only a few months after the events of The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, so that needs to be made quickly after The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. Because The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is the most popular book, both the BBC and Waldon productions had momentum after adapting this first book. The momentum was lost when Waldon adapted Prince Caspian (and BBC paid lip service to Prince Caspian to get it out of the way as fast as possible). Maybe I am biased, but I think The Magician's Nephew, The Horse and His Boy and The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe are all cinematic stories. Adapting The Horse and His Boy second could allow the Netflix productions to gain momentum with audiences in their first three films before they have to deal with Prince Caspian (which seems to be more difficult to adapt and thrill the audience). If the first three films are successful, then Netflix could possibly invest more in getting Prince Caspian right.
4. When movies are released in the order that the books were released, audiences perceive the books as being the Pevensies' stories. (I waste too much time listening to people on youtube watching movies 'for the first time' - yeah, it's because of people like me that they keep making that nonsense.) When people watch the Chronicles of Narnia, it is really common for them to get the "The Voyage of the Dawn Treader" and say, "What happened to Peter and Susan? Why is this Eustace character here? Get rid of Eustace and bring back Susan and Peter! This is supposed to be stories about the 4 kids!" If you adapt The Magician's Nephew and The Horse and His Boy first, then the sense that these should be 'the Pevensies' stories' is greatly lessened and helps to manage audiences expectations when time comes to hand the baton to Jill and Eustace. (To put it another way, I think we are more likely to get The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, The Silver Chair and The Last Battle made if The Horse and His Boy is made next, whereas I think it is more likely that audience interest will wane and it will not be profitable for Netflix to continue the series if they do not.)
5. The Horse and His Boy is my favorite book in the series and selfishly, I would just like to see it 😀
I totally think Gretta Gerwig will adapt The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe second, but I think there are better reasons to go with The Horse and His Boy next.
The term is over: the holidays have begun.
The dream is ended: this is the morning